USD/RUB halts at resistance

The USD/RUB may be on its way to its technical targets

FOREX 8

Last week, during an interview with Joe Biden, the interviewer asked the President if he thought Russian President Vladimir Putin was a killer, to which the President responded, “Yes”.  In addition, the US President said Putin would face repercussions for being a killer, as well as, for attempting to interfere in the US 2020 elections, in favor of Donald Trump.  Putin responded by saying, “I wish him health.”

On March 16th, the day of the interview, the USD/RUB put in a double bottom near 72.65.  Afterwards, the USD/RUB went bid and hasn’t looked back. Coincidentally, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey hiked interest rates 200 basis points that same day, from 17% to 19%.  As a result of that rate hike, Turkish President Erdogan fired the head of the CBRT over the weekend which caused USD/TRY to gap higher on Monday. (See Currency Pair of the Week) The sharp USD/TRY move higher brought many emerging market currency pairs with it, including the USD/RUB.

Forex market hours: when is the best time of day to trade forex?

The USD/RUB had been in a long-term symmetrical triangle since the height of the pandemic on March 19th, 2020.   The pair has been trading within the triangle for the last year until the pair briefly broke below on March 10th, which led to the double bottom on March 16th.  As USD/RUB bid back up, it moved back into the symmetrical triangle to the 50% retracement of the November 2nd, 2020 highs to the March 16th double bottom lows, near 76.80. The target for a double bottom low is the height of the pattern added to the breakout point, or near 80.25.  However, the pair must first get through resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the same timeframe near 77.78, then the top, downward sloping trendline from the triangle near 79.80.  Above there is the November 2nd highs near 80.95. Horizontal support below on the daily timeframe is near 75.00.  Below that is the upward sloping trendline of the symmetrical triangle near 74.00 and then the double bottom lows of 72.65.

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

Note that on a 240-minute timeframe, the pair appears to be consolidating just below the aforementioned 50% level, as the RSI unwinds from overbought conditions.  The target for a flag pattern is the length of the flagpole added to the breakout point, which is near 78.50. 

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

If the continued “he said, she said” continues between the US and Russia, USD/RUB many continue to move higher.  In addition, if the US Dollar vs emerging market currencies continue to move higher, it could bring USD/RUB with it.  Add in the favorable technical picture, and the USD/RUB may be on its way to its technical targets!

Learn more about forex trading opportunities.



Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.