WTI and Gold Spike On US Missile Attack At Baghdad Airport

With Japan still on holiday and no major economic data scheduled in Asia, it looked like we were on track for another quiet session. President Trump had other plans.

With Japan still on holiday and no major economic data scheduled in Asia, it looked like we were on track for another quiet session. President Trump had other plans.

Reports of a missile attack at a Baghdad airport hit the screens, with reports that seven pro-Iranian security officials had been killed. An Iraqi militia spokesman confirmed that Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and then claimed that “Americans and Israelis” were behind the attacks.

US officials and the Pentagon confirmed the US was responsible for the attack, whilst reports surfaced that US Navy Seals had also captured pro-Iran militia commanders in Iraq. And, if that were not enough confirmation, Trump tweeted a picture of the American flag.


As you’d expect, oil prices spiked on supply concerns and at its high had rallied over 4%. Gold also followed suit and hit its highest level since September.

The repercussions from today’s events are yet to be seen but, given the seniority of the leaders killed and detailed, they’re not likely to be small. One pundit was quoted saying “I’m not sure Donald Trump realises what he’s unleashed”, which could be putting it mildly. It’s around 7am in Iran at the time of writing. This leaves plenty of time for developments through the Asia session and beyond, so everyone is being kept on their toes for developments.


Today’s spike has taken WTI break out of its bullish channel and print an intraday high above $64. Yet with prices having retreated below 63.38 resistance, more information may need to come to light before to help decide which side of this key level WTI closes on. If tensions escalate and it appears there will be a squeeze on the oil supply, then we could find prices rebound back above $64 with relative ease. Yet if the response is somehow muted (unlikely at this stage) we could be looking a sharp reversal and for WTI to leave bearish hammer in its wake.

  • A break above 64 brings the 66.60 high into focus
  • A daily close <= 62 would leave a bearish hammer and signal a bull-trap, and take it back within the 50 – 64 range it was remained within since May


Latest Analysis On Middle East Tensions:
It's Gap Galore Around Middle East Tensions | Gold, SPX, WTI
Gold – A Thing of Beauty
OIL MARKET WEEK AHEAD: Iran’s Possible Scenarios

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.