Hang Seng, China A50 seeking fresh bullish catalysts to power market recovery
China’s state-endorsed equity market recovery continues to go from strength to strength, building upon a lengthy and growing list of measures being rolled out by policymakers designed to coerce traders into buying. Perhaps the broader bear market trend may be coming to an end?
Ducks have lined up for Nikkei 225 to test its 1989 high
If there was ever a day for Japan’s Nikkei 225 to overcome its demons and take out the record high set in December 1989, few screen better than today. The ducks look to have lined up for bulls. If we can’t set a new peak, it may provide a subtle warning that the market has run too hard, too fast.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 rapid rebound gathers pace despite warning from rates markets
Despite lacklustre corporate earnings and rebound in US bond yields, the spectacular rally in AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 only gathered pace in the second half of Thursday’s trading session, leaving both markets eyeing off potential topside breaks.
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Employment slowdown a seasonal swoon or start of something sinister?
Australia’s labour market is undeniably slowing, bringing the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leapfrogging the US Federal Reserve when it comes to which central bank will cut interest rates first.
Australia’s ASX 200 vulnerable on shakeout of soft-landing bets
Having been a major benefactor from the soft-landing narrative, the combination of higher global interest rates and stretched valuations has Australia’s ASX 200 index under pressure.
Hang Seng’s suspect price action at odds with bullish narratives
Hang Seng futures don’t look like they’re about to embark on a face-ripping rally, no matter how cheap valuations are and no matter how much government encouragement is doled out.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 rebound on China market surge, not RBA
The RBA continues to see the risk that rates may increase again despite delivering updated forecasts showing faster progress in bringing inflation back to within its target band. For AUD/USD traders, there was more interest in the rally in Chinese stocks and currency than what the bank had to say.
China’s stock market rescue brings in reinforcements
China’s “National Team”, the nickname given to state-backed entities tasked with rescuing markets, are doubling their efforts, upping purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) while restricting certain undesirable activities detrimental to stock prices. So far, indices such as the A50 are rallying.
USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 vulnerable should yield differentials continue to compress
Bond yields, especially in the United States given the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency, are perhaps more important to Japan than many other parts of the world.
AUD/USD trading soggy as markets ramp up June RBA rate cut bets
Australian overnight index swaps (OIS) markets are fully priced for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in June to 4.1%, adding pressure on AUD/USD following the release of a softer-than-expected Australian consumer price inflation (CPI) report on Wednesday.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 bulls unfazed by retail sales slump
AUD/USD and the ASX 200 have ignored a larger-than-expected slump in Australian retail sales in December, adding to earlier gains in the wake of the release.
USD/JPY, Nikkei trading heavy as news flow bolsters case for BOJ rate hike
Japan has received a raft of bullish economic news today, sending Japanese government bond yields higher while simultaneously placing downward pressure on USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225.
Hang Seng, China A50 and CNH need sustained rally to turn bearish China narrative around
There is a real confidence problem right now towards China. And while the underlying reasons are complex, the easiest way to change the prevailing bearish narrative is for the price action to turnaround. Price leads narrative.
ASX 200 priced for perfection nearing tricky technical test
Australia’s ASX 200 is rallying for a fourth session on the back of big gains in banks, healthcare and record highs on Wall Street, seeing it approach what some may declare to be a “death zone” for bulls based on price action of recent years.
ASX 200, AUD/JPY bouncing back with improved risk appetite
With risk appetite back in full swing and market indicators on US recession risk providing a green light for the soft landing narrative, cyclicals such as Australia’s ASX 200 and AUD/JPY recovered last week, returning to the uptrend they’ve been in since the risk rival revival took hold in late October.
China’s ‘National Team’ may be mobilising to stabilise its crumbling equity markets
China’s ‘National Team’ – a collection of state or quasi state-backed entities tasked by the government to smooth out financial market ructions when the prevailing price action is deemed desirable – looks like it may have been mobilised with China’s A50 ripping higher late Thursday and going on with the move today.
ASX 200, AUD/JPY: Looking vulnerable to downside as risk appetite wanes
With markets starting to question how many rate cuts we’ll see from major central banks this year, sentiment towards China’s economic outlook deteriorating rapidly and riskier asset classes coming under pressures, Thursday shapes up as an important session for Australia’s ASX 200 and the AUD/JPY .
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Hang Seng trading like an index with significant risks attached
Declining population and accelerated house price falls combine with policy, geopolitical, earnings and credit risks to create the perfect bearish storm for Hong Kong's Hang Seng.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Higher US bond yields fueling upside momentum
USD/JPY has surged to fresh one-month highs, aided by a lift in US bond yields which widened interest rate differentials with Japan. Given the risk-off tone seen across broader markets, it’s clear the yen is no longer the safe haven play it once was.
Recent Nikkei bulls face their first real test
Recent adoptees of a bullish Nikkei stance are facing their first real test with a distinct risk-off tone settling in across the Asian region, seeing the index reverse slightly after hitting fresh 34-year highs on Monday.
Nikkei surge threatened by elevated USD/JPY reversal risk
While you can’t argue with the price action – sentiment is off the charts – there are some obvious downside risks that appear underpriced right now for Japan's benchmark share index.
USD/CNH down, A50 up as weak Chinese inflation keeps stimulus hopes alive
Chinese inflationary pressures remain weak, whether it be upstream or for consumers. But with expectations for further stimulus from the Chinese policymakers baked in the cake, does it have implications for China’s equity market or currency?
AUD/USD, ASX 200: An inverse play on what happens with US 2-year bond yields
For cyclical assets that have run hard on the lower rates, stronger growth narrative, such as the ASX 200 and AUD/USD, a meaningful unwind of US rate cut bets could lead to an ugly and abrupt air pocket for these markets.