WTI firm over $60, API data in focus
WTI is ticking higher following upbeat API data overnight which revealed a draw of -3.608 million barrels.
OPEC also raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2021 to 5.95 million bpd up from 5.89 million bpd.
US Dollar dropped to a 3 week low following upbeat US inflation data & a strong bond auction.
Rising covid cases in Europe & tighter lockdowns continue to haunt oil
EIA official inventory data is due later, expects -2.154 million draw versus -3.522 million prior.
Where next for WTI crude oil?
At the start of the week, WTI crude oil pushed above its descending trendline dating back to early March.
It also rose above its 20 & 50 EMA on the 4 hour chart.
The price had been trading within a tight range of 59.50 – 60.70 over the past 10 days with little directional strength.
At the time of writing the price is attempting to breakout above the upper band at 60.70. Beyond here the buyers could gain traction. The RSI is supportive of further gains.
Resistance can be seen a 62.15 March 29 high and the highest level seen since mid March.
On the flip side strong support can be seen at 60.00, the confluence of the 20 & 50 EMA. A break through this level could see 59.50 the lower band of the horizontal channel tested opening the door to the descending trendline support at 59.25 come into play. Beyond here 58.50 could also offer some support.
What factors move the oil markets?
EUR/USD at monthly high, attention on Lagarde & Powell
EUR/USD is extending gains for a third straight session, trading at its highest level in a month.
The US Dollar hit a three week low on easing inflation fears, downbeat yields and vaccine concerns after US authorities call for a pause in the use of J&J’s covid vaccine.
ECB’ s Lagarde and Fed Powell are both due to speak later
Where next for EUR/USD?
EUR/USD has pushed back over its 200 day EMA and 50 day EMA which combined with a bullish MACD suggests that there is more room for further upside.
The pair has also broken above resistance at 1.1950 high March 24 and is looking towards 1.20 round number and high March 12. A move beyond here could see the buyers gain traction, eyeing a move towards 1.2130 the March high.
On the downside, immediate support can be seen at 50 EMA 1.1935 at move below here could negate the current uptrend. This could open the door to the key 200 EMA support at 1.1840.
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