Commitment of traders report (COT):

Research
Matt Simpson financial analyst
By :  ,  Market Analyst

After a long delay due to a cyberattack on the CME exchange, the weekly COT report now returns as per usual as the backlog of data has now been filled.

 

Commitment of traders – as of Tuesday 21st March:

  • Net-short exposure to CAD futures fell to its most bearish level since January 2019
  • Large speculators were net-short NZD futures for a second week
  • Net-long exposure to the US dollar index (DXY) rose gradually for a third consecutive week
20230327cotFOREXfx

 

This content will only appear on Forex websites! Read our guide on how to interpret the weekly COT report  

Commitment of traders – Canadian dollar futures (CAD):

20230327cotCADfx

Traders were quick to offload their exposure to the Canadian dollar following the BOC’s dovish pause. Traders have actually been net-short the currency since late September, but had increased both long and short exposure to 6-year highs ahead of the meeting (seemingly as some sort of hedge). Nearly 42k long bets were closed last week, which is its third largest weekly decline on record, which saw net-short exposure fall by -25.1k contracts to -56.8k contracts.

 

The question now is whether we’re at or nearing a sentiment extreme. Since 2013, there have been six occasions where net-short exposure reversed higher around the 60-70k short mark. The 2017 trough is the exception which saw net-short exposure fall close to -100k before it reversed higher.

 

Commitment of traders – as of Tuesday 21st March:

  • Net-long exposure to gold futures rose for a third week to a 7-week high
  • Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to silver futures
  • Net-short exposure to palladium futures is at its second most bearish level on record (which the record being set two weeks ago)
  • Gross short exposure of managed funds to WTI futures rose to its most bearish level since January 2019d
20230327cotCOMMfx

 

 

Commitment of traders – Gold futures (GC):

Perhaps not too surprisingly, traders have become increasingly bullish on gold futures. Large speculators increased net-long exposure for a third week to a 7-week high, but managed funds saw a notable drop in gross short exposure and increase of gross longs over the past two weeks.

Moreover, managed funds do not appear to have reached a sentiment extreme, so perhaps gold can make a daily close (and breakout) above $2,000 should it retain its safe-haven status amidst the current concerns of a banking and liquidity crisis.

20230327cotGOLDfx

 

Commitment of traders – WTI Crude oil future (CL):

Managed funds are their least bullish on WTI futures since January 2016. Gross short exposure spiked higher by 37.4k contracts last week (and 29.4k the week prior) which takes gross-short exposure to its most bearish level since October 2019. It’s worth noting that managed funds have not been net-short WTI since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, and according to record have remained net-long ever since. So there is a case to be built that perhaps we are approaching a sentiment extreme, as is the case that OPEC do not want prices to drop below $60.

20230327cotWTIfx  

Commitment of traders FAQs

What is the COT report?

The Commitments of Traders, or COT, report is a weekly publication that shows the aggregate holdings of different participants in the US futures market. It provides a snapshot of trading commitments as of Tuesday of that week in order to increase the transparency of exchanges.

COT reports are used across markets, so you’ll be able to obtain reports on forex, gold, indices and more.

How do you read the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders report is read in tables, in which each row will tell you the market and each column looks at the open interest, long positions and short positions. You’ll also be able to see which actors have taken positions, including dealers, institutions or funds.

The COT is a key data source for traders, as it can provide guidance on whether to go long or short on each market.

What is the COT report release time?

The COT report is released every Friday at 15:30 Eastern Time on the CFTC website. That’s 20:30 GMT or Saturday at 7:30 AEST. We provide up-to-date coverage of the COT report so that you can get expert analysis each week, as quickly as possible.

 

 

 

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