Tesla Q1 2022 earnings preview: Where next for Tesla stock?

Electric vehicle charging
Matt Weller
By :  ,  Head of Market Research

When will Tesla release Q4 earnings?

Tesla is scheduled to release first quarter earnings for 2022 after the market closes on Wednesday April 20.

What are analysts expecting from Tesla Q1 earnings?

Consensus analyst expectations are for the automaker to report $2.27 in EPS on $17.8B in revenues.

Tesla Q4 earnings preview

Despite ongoing semiconductor shortages and the constant headlines generated from its mercurial CEO’s side projects, Tesla’s core business continues to grow consistently.

The company has already reported 310,048 new vehicle deliveries in Q1, incrementally higher than last quarter’s 308,650 deliveries “despite ongoing supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns.” Indeed, the company has consistently navigated the global chip shortage better than its rivals in recent years and expects to continue to increase its deliveries by about 50% per year moving forward.

Beyond the headline financial figures and total vehicle deliveries, traders will key in on a couple other key themes. First, Tesla’s profit margins will be closely scrutinized. More than many other automakers, Tesla has substantial pricing power based on the perceived quality and allure of its brand, allowing it to pass along higher supply chain costs to consumers.

Secondly, investors will eagerly await an updated production timeline for the company’s factories in German and Texas. Both factories began production in the last month and will focus primarily on the company’s Model Y mid-sized SUV, though the Texas factory will also produce the company’s highly-anticipated Cybertruck starting in 2023. The progress of these factories will be essential to the company’s plans to ramp up production dramatically.

Finally, Tesla has officially filed plans for a stock split (“stock dividend”) with the SEC. Of course, the finance textbooks will tell you that a stock split doesn’t change the value of the underlying company, often using the example of cutting a pizza into smaller slices, stock splits have nonetheless led to a bullish reaction in certain shares in recent years, so an update on that initiative could influence the stock as well.

Where next for TSLA stock?

Like many US stocks, TSLA has lost momentum in recent months, and the recent price action is best characterized as rangebound.

As we go to press, shares are showing signs of stabilizing around $1,000 with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally at $980 and the 50-day EMA near $970 providing support. If the stock reports better-than-anticipated earnings, bulls could use the current support level as a springboard to take the popular stock back toward its early April highs in the $1100 zone. On the other hand, a disappointing earnings release could push TSLA down through support in the upper-$900s, clearing the way for a deeper retracement toward the Fibonacci retracements of the recent rally near $925 (50%) or $875 (61.8%) next.

fx_tesla_at_1000_ahead_of_earnings

Source: StoneX, TradingView

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