注目記事

Crude extends drop for fourth consecutive session

Crude oil prices have fallen again today, with both contracts extending their losses for the fourth consecutive session. At the time of writing, Brent was trading around $74.10, having been above $80.00 just a couple of weeks ago. WTI was trading around $64.50, more than $8 worse off compared to the high of almost $73 it hit on May 22.

Oil prices have taken a dramatic fall over the past couple of weeks after Saudi Arabia – the de facto head of the OPEC – strongly hinted at the prospects of increased supplies from the OPEC and non-OPEC in the second half of the year.

Speculators have rushed to sell oil ahead of the OPEC’s next meeting on June 22 in Vienna. The market clearly believes that the cartel will ease crude production cuts at this meeting.

The OPEC and 10 non-OPEC producers, including Russia, had agreed to limit their output in a deal which was set to expire at the end of this year.

But due to the increased levels of geopolitical risks to supply of Iranian and the recent falls in Venezuelan oil production, the agreement could be revised so that some members, most notably Saudi and non-OPEC member Russia boost their output to make up for the short fall in order to avoid a potential supply shock.

But it is highly unlikely that the OPEC’s cooperation with the 10 non-OPEC producers will end at this meeting. They will ensure to keep supply tight enough to avoid another 2014-style slide. This should keep a floor under prices in the long-term, even if US supplies are continuing to rise. Meanwhile the US driving season is going to kick into a higher gear this month, which should help reduce gasoline stockpiles and keep prices supported.

Technical outlook

The recent sharp falls means WTI has finally broken its bullish trend line which had been in place since the start of September last year. This has more or less confirmed the prices have topped out for now, although long-term support levels still remain intact. Still, the path of least resistance remains to the downside for now.

WTI is now approaching an interesting technical area between $62.55 and $64.10. This range marks the point of origin of the breakout to this year’s highs, with the lower end of the range also being the 2015 high, once a major resistance level. So, there is a possibility we could see oil prices stage at least a short-term bounce here.

However, if the above support range eventually breaks down, then WTI could extend its falls towards the next potential support levels at $61.10 or even $60.00. The former corresponds with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, while the latter, as well as being a psychologically-important level, marks the 200-day moving average support.

The key long-term support level comes in around $55. A previous support and resistance meets the long-term bullish trend line here. But we are miles away from this level and WTI may never get to it before resuming its up trend.

Meanwhile in terms of resistance, the recently broken support and the back side of the broken medium term trend line comes in at $66.50. This is the first and perhaps most important line of defence for the bears. Above this, the 50-day average comes in around $67.70 which if broken could potentially lead to a recovery back towards $70 a barrel.


Source: eSignal and FOREX.com. Please note, this product is not available to our US customers.

本レポートに記載されている情報や見解は、一般的な情報としての使用のみを目的としたもので あり、通貨、CFD、その他あらゆる金融商品の、購入や売却に関する勧誘や依頼の意図は全くあ りません。本文書に盛り込まれている、いかなる見解や情報も、予告や通知なく変更することが あります。本文書は、特定の投資目的や、何らかの財務的背景、特定の受領者の意思などに沿っ て書かれ配布されたものではありません。本文書内で引用・言及されている、あらゆる過去の価 格データ・価格推移データは、当社独自の調査や分析に基づいており、当社はそのデータの提供 元やそのデータそのものの信頼性につき、いかなる保証もせず、また筆者や訳者、各国の支社・ 支店も、本文書の内容の正確性や完全性についても一切保証しません。本文書については英語版 を原版とし、翻訳版と原版で相違がある場合には、原版の内容が優先するものとします。本文書 の内容に基づく直接または間接の損失、そして本文書を信頼したことによる、いかなる人物や団 体が結果的に引き起こした損失についても、当社は一切その責を負いません。

先物取引、先物オプション取引、外国為替証拠金取引(またはFX)、CFD、その他、入金額より もレバレッジをかけて、より大きな金額で取引をする金融商品には、当初入金額を超える大きな 損失を被るリスクがあり、すべての人に適するわけではありません。レバレッジを大きくして取 引すると、その分リスクも高くなります。金スポットや銀の取引は、米国商品取引法(U.S. Commodity Exchange Act)の規制で保護されていません。また、差金決済取引(CFD)は米国 在住者の取引は許可されていません。外国為替証拠金取引(FX)や商品先物取引を行う前には、 投資目的、投資経験、リスク許容範囲等について十分検討する必要があります。本文書内にある、 いかなる見解、ニュース、調査、分析、価格その他についても、「本文書を読むいかなる人物や 団体も、FOREX.comが、投資、法的、税務に関して助言するものではないことを理解している」 ことを前提として、一般的な情報として提供されるものです。いかなる投資、法的、税務に関す る事柄についても、適切な専門家や助言者に相談をしてください。FOREX.comは、米国の商品先 物取引委員会(CFTC)、英国の金融行動監督機構(FCA)、オーストラリアのオーストラリア証 券投資委員会(ASIC)、日本の金融庁の規制を受けています。