注目記事

EURUSD Spotlight on Draghi as ECB holds policy unchanged

Understandably, the markets were fairly quiet first thing this morning as investors looked ahead to a few potentially market moving events. Things will kick off with the European Central Bank’s press conference, which is due to start shortly, while tomorrow we will have the Bank of Japan’s policy decision as well as the first quarter GDP estimates from both the UK and US.

Earlier, the ECB published its latest rate statement and as expected it didn’t contain much in the way of new information. The markets hardly reacted, although the euro did weaken slightly against the dollar and especially the pound, which was already on the rise.

So, the focus is on the ECB President himself when he delivers the press conference at 13:30 BST.

Some analysts expect Mario Draghi to lean slightly towards a more dovish policy stance again given the recent weakness in Eurozone data, most notably in Germany. However, the ECB will not want to damage its reputation by backing down from its plans of starting the tapering process in September and end QE by December. So, Mario Draghi might dismiss the weakness in data as being temporary.

But should Draghi talk down Eurozone’s economic growth outlook or inflation forecasts, or otherwise hints at the prospects of delaying policy normalisation process, then the euro could drop sharply. Otherwise it could actually pop higher as bearish speculators who have been shorting the single currency ahead of the ECB decision are proven wrong. That being said, it is not as simple as that. There is also the possibility of “sell the rumour, buy the news” type of a trade. The EUR/USD has been going down on expectations of a dovish Mario Draghi, so if those expectations are merely met, would that warrant further selling?

On also needs to pay close attention to any comments regarding the euro. While the single currency has weakened in recent weeks against the dollar, this has been mainly due to a rebound in the greenback than the euro itself. If anything, the euro has actually remained elevated against most of her other rivals. Thus, if Mario Draghi were to talk down the euro then we may see a short-term drop and that could help to boost the European stock markets and possibly undermine gold as the dollar index finds further support through a potential drop in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Ahead of the ECB’s presser, the EUR/USD was testing the previous swing low at 1.2155 at the time of this writing. If this level holds and price breaks today’s earlier high of 1.2190 then we would expect to see a short-squeeze rally towards 1.2250, possibly even the 1.2300-1.2330 range. These levels were formerly support. However if the EUR/USD breaks and holds below 1.2155 then we could see a drop towards the 1.20s next. Some potential support levels to watch in this scenario would be around 1.2090 – the 2017 high – followed by 1.2050 and the psychologically-important 1.20 handle itself, where we also have the 200-day moving average converging as well.


Source: eSignal and FOREX.com.

本レポートに記載されている情報や見解は、一般的な情報としての使用のみを目的としたもので あり、通貨、CFD、その他あらゆる金融商品の、購入や売却に関する勧誘や依頼の意図は全くあ りません。本文書に盛り込まれている、いかなる見解や情報も、予告や通知なく変更することが あります。本文書は、特定の投資目的や、何らかの財務的背景、特定の受領者の意思などに沿っ て書かれ配布されたものではありません。本文書内で引用・言及されている、あらゆる過去の価 格データ・価格推移データは、当社独自の調査や分析に基づいており、当社はそのデータの提供 元やそのデータそのものの信頼性につき、いかなる保証もせず、また筆者や訳者、各国の支社・ 支店も、本文書の内容の正確性や完全性についても一切保証しません。本文書については英語版 を原版とし、翻訳版と原版で相違がある場合には、原版の内容が優先するものとします。本文書 の内容に基づく直接または間接の損失、そして本文書を信頼したことによる、いかなる人物や団 体が結果的に引き起こした損失についても、当社は一切その責を負いません。

先物取引、先物オプション取引、外国為替証拠金取引(またはFX)、CFD、その他、入金額より もレバレッジをかけて、より大きな金額で取引をする金融商品には、当初入金額を超える大きな 損失を被るリスクがあり、すべての人に適するわけではありません。レバレッジを大きくして取 引すると、その分リスクも高くなります。金スポットや銀の取引は、米国商品取引法(U.S. Commodity Exchange Act)の規制で保護されていません。また、差金決済取引(CFD)は米国 在住者の取引は許可されていません。外国為替証拠金取引(FX)や商品先物取引を行う前には、 投資目的、投資経験、リスク許容範囲等について十分検討する必要があります。本文書内にある、 いかなる見解、ニュース、調査、分析、価格その他についても、「本文書を読むいかなる人物や 団体も、FOREX.comが、投資、法的、税務に関して助言するものではないことを理解している」 ことを前提として、一般的な情報として提供されるものです。いかなる投資、法的、税務に関す る事柄についても、適切な専門家や助言者に相談をしてください。FOREX.comは、米国の商品先 物取引委員会(CFTC)、英国の金融行動監督機構(FCA)、オーストラリアのオーストラリア証 券投資委員会(ASIC)、日本の金融庁の規制を受けています。