注目記事

Gold could rebound amid elevated risks

Understandably it has been a rather quiet day in the markets with North Americans out celebrating Labor Day. But with the summer holidays over, volatility should pick up from now on. In fact, this week promises to be a busy one in terms of macro events. We will have monetary policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) and Bank of Canada (Thursday) and important data releases too – these include Aussie GDP and UK Services PMI (both on Wednesday), as well as monthly jobs reports from both the US and Canada (Friday). What’s more, there’s ongoing trade concerns, Brexit uncertainty and emerging market currency crisis to keep traders busy. With so much going on, it is not unimaginable for safe haven assets such as gold, yen and Swiss franc to find demand.

Gold reluctant to move higher so far

Despite the emerging market currency crisis, trade war concerns and Brexit uncertainty, safe haven gold has so far been reluctant to move higher. In large part, this is because of the dollar’s strength, which has weighed heavily on all buck-denominated metals. But even against the pound and the euro, the precious metal has not enjoyed much success either. However, with September historically not being the best month for US equities, and given the abovementioned risks, there could well be a sharp rise in risk aversion to watch out for in the coming weeks. Consequently, safe haven gold could stage a comeback, especially if the dollar were to weaken as well. A potential move back above $1215 resistance could spark technical buying in gold, while a break of $1184 support would signal resumption of the bearish trend.  

USD/CAD jumps as Trump threatens to exclude Canada from NAFTA

For now, though, the dollar is clinging onto its bullish trend and has done particularly well against commodity and emerging market currencies. The latest commodity currency to tumble is the Canadian dollar.  The USD/CAD rose sharply to 1.3100 after the US failed to reach an agreement with Canada, with US President Donald Trump threatening to exclude its northern neighbour from a new NAFTA agreement. Trump said in a tweet that “there is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new Nafta deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the US after decades of abuse, Canada will be out.”

Pound drops as Brexit deal optimism fades

In the UK, last week’s optimism over a Brexit deal has faded fast. This comes after the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said he strongly opposes parts of Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposal for a Brexit deal. But May has insisted that she would not “be pushed into accepting compromises on the Chequers proposals that are not in our national interest”. To make matters worse, David Davis – the former Brexit secretary – has promised to vote against Mrs May’s Brexit plan. Mr Davis has called the Chequers proposal “worse than the [UK’s] existing deal” inside the EU. The pound responded to these developments over the weekend by gapping lower. And it fell further on news Britain’s manufacturing sector PMI dropped last month to its lowest level in more than two years, becoming hitting support around $1.2855.

Argentine peso unimpressed by plan to eliminate fiscal deficit

In EM space, Turkey’s central bank said its “monetary stance will be adjusted” at its policy meeting later on in the month after new data showed a sharp jump in domestic inflation. The lira has remained under heavy pressure despite the government’s recent efforts with USD/TRY trading around 6.64 – not far off its most recent record high of about 7.02. Meanwhile the Argentine peso, which last week lost a big chunk of its value and dropped to a fresh record low, was again coming under pressure amid growing concerns over the country's deficit. This is despite the fact Argentina’s economy minister unveiling plans to get rid of the country’s fiscal deficit by next year by charging higher export taxes.

.

Source: TradingView.com and FOREX.com.

本レポートに記載されている情報や見解は、一般的な情報としての使用のみを目的としたもので あり、通貨、CFD、その他あらゆる金融商品の、購入や売却に関する勧誘や依頼の意図は全くあ りません。本文書に盛り込まれている、いかなる見解や情報も、予告や通知なく変更することが あります。本文書は、特定の投資目的や、何らかの財務的背景、特定の受領者の意思などに沿っ て書かれ配布されたものではありません。本文書内で引用・言及されている、あらゆる過去の価 格データ・価格推移データは、当社独自の調査や分析に基づいており、当社はそのデータの提供 元やそのデータそのものの信頼性につき、いかなる保証もせず、また筆者や訳者、各国の支社・ 支店も、本文書の内容の正確性や完全性についても一切保証しません。本文書については英語版 を原版とし、翻訳版と原版で相違がある場合には、原版の内容が優先するものとします。本文書 の内容に基づく直接または間接の損失、そして本文書を信頼したことによる、いかなる人物や団 体が結果的に引き起こした損失についても、当社は一切その責を負いません。

先物取引、先物オプション取引、外国為替証拠金取引(またはFX)、CFD、その他、入金額より もレバレッジをかけて、より大きな金額で取引をする金融商品には、当初入金額を超える大きな 損失を被るリスクがあり、すべての人に適するわけではありません。レバレッジを大きくして取 引すると、その分リスクも高くなります。金スポットや銀の取引は、米国商品取引法(U.S. Commodity Exchange Act)の規制で保護されていません。また、差金決済取引(CFD)は米国 在住者の取引は許可されていません。外国為替証拠金取引(FX)や商品先物取引を行う前には、 投資目的、投資経験、リスク許容範囲等について十分検討する必要があります。本文書内にある、 いかなる見解、ニュース、調査、分析、価格その他についても、「本文書を読むいかなる人物や 団体も、FOREX.comが、投資、法的、税務に関して助言するものではないことを理解している」 ことを前提として、一般的な情報として提供されるものです。いかなる投資、法的、税務に関す る事柄についても、適切な専門家や助言者に相談をしてください。FOREX.comは、米国の商品先 物取引委員会(CFTC)、英国の金融行動監督機構(FCA)、オーストラリアのオーストラリア証 券投資委員会(ASIC)、日本の金融庁の規制を受けています。