Week Ahead Central bank minutes to guide interest rate expectations

The past week in the markets has been dominated by dramatic, and often incongruent, moves that have been marked by still-buoyant volatility in the aftermath of the preceding week’s wild market swings. Through the course of the past week, equity markets rebounded sharply, paring much of the losses that were suffered when stock indexes briefly entered into correction territory during the first full week of February.

This sharp equity rebound has occurred despite increasing fears of rising inflation and interest rates that were recently put on full display as US Treasury yields hit new multi-year highs and US inflation indicators came in significantly higher than expected. Also defying expectations was the US dollar, which continued to fall through much of the past week, establishing yet a new three-year low on Friday (before bouncing), despite growing anticipation of higher US interest rates and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve.

In the week ahead, markets should continue to be preoccupied with the specters of rising inflation and interest rates as reflected in government bond yields. Of more immediate concern, however, will be the release of minutes from three major central banks detailing their most recent monetary policy meetings. These reports will provide important clues as to the central banks’ monetary policy stances, potential interest rate trajectories, and outlooks on inflation and economic growth.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is up first on Tuesday in Sydney with its release of meeting minutes. In early February, the RBA left interest rates unchanged as widely expected, marking a full year-and-a-half without any rate changes. The central bank is not expected to raise interest rates until either late this year at the earliest, or possibly next year, as its recurring concerns about a strong Australian dollar is one of the factors precluding a more immediate rate hike.

Next up is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve release of minutes from its FOMC meeting at the end of January, in which the central bank kept rates steady. Though new inflation data has emerged since then, any substantive discussion of inflation during that meeting will provide some indications as to the Fed’s potential policy trajectory.

Finally, the European Central Bank releases its own monetary policy meeting accounts on Thursday. The euro has remained exceptionally buoyant, especially against a heavily weakened US dollar, on a rising eurozone economy and keen anticipation of monetary policy tightening by the ECB. Recently, the central bank hinted that the era of extraordinarily loose monetary policy is essentially over, which lends further support for potentially more hawkishness from policymakers on a global scale.

Along with the release of minutes from these three major central banks, some other important events and releases are as follows:

  • Tuesday, February 20th:
    • Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    • Canadian Wholesale Sales (M/M)
  • Wednesday, February 21st:
    • Australian Wage Price Index (Q/Q)
    • French Flash Services PMI
    • French Flash Manufacturing PMI
    • German Flash Services PMI
    • German Flash Manufacturing PMI
    • Eurozone Flash Services PMI
    • Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI
    • UK Average Earnings Index (3M/Y), Claimant Count Change, and Unemployment Rate
    • UK Inflation Report Hearings
    • US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thursday, February 22nd:
    • UK GDP (Q/Q)
    • European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
    • Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (M/M)
  • Friday, February 23rd:
    • New Zealand Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (Q/Q)
    • Eurozone Final Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)
    • Canadian Consumer Price Index (M/M)

本レポートに記載されている情報や見解は、一般的な情報としての使用のみを目的としたもので あり、通貨、CFD、その他あらゆる金融商品の、購入や売却に関する勧誘や依頼の意図は全くあ りません。本文書に盛り込まれている、いかなる見解や情報も、予告や通知なく変更することが あります。本文書は、特定の投資目的や、何らかの財務的背景、特定の受領者の意思などに沿っ て書かれ配布されたものではありません。本文書内で引用・言及されている、あらゆる過去の価 格データ・価格推移データは、当社独自の調査や分析に基づいており、当社はそのデータの提供 元やそのデータそのものの信頼性につき、いかなる保証もせず、また筆者や訳者、各国の支社・ 支店も、本文書の内容の正確性や完全性についても一切保証しません。本文書については英語版 を原版とし、翻訳版と原版で相違がある場合には、原版の内容が優先するものとします。本文書 の内容に基づく直接または間接の損失、そして本文書を信頼したことによる、いかなる人物や団 体が結果的に引き起こした損失についても、当社は一切その責を負いません。

先物取引、先物オプション取引、外国為替証拠金取引(またはFX)、CFD、その他、入金額より もレバレッジをかけて、より大きな金額で取引をする金融商品には、当初入金額を超える大きな 損失を被るリスクがあり、すべての人に適するわけではありません。レバレッジを大きくして取 引すると、その分リスクも高くなります。金スポットや銀の取引は、米国商品取引法(U.S. Commodity Exchange Act)の規制で保護されていません。また、差金決済取引(CFD)は米国 在住者の取引は許可されていません。外国為替証拠金取引(FX)や商品先物取引を行う前には、 投資目的、投資経験、リスク許容範囲等について十分検討する必要があります。本文書内にある、 いかなる見解、ニュース、調査、分析、価格その他についても、「本文書を読むいかなる人物や 団体も、FOREX.comが、投資、法的、税務に関して助言するものではないことを理解している」 ことを前提として、一般的な情報として提供されるものです。いかなる投資、法的、税務に関す る事柄についても、適切な専門家や助言者に相談をしてください。FOREX.comは、米国の商品先 物取引委員会(CFTC)、英国の金融行動監督機構(FCA)、オーストラリアのオーストラリア証 券投資委員会(ASIC)、日本の金融庁の規制を受けています。