注目記事

Week Ahead US dollar in focus ahead of FOMC NFP

For more than a week, the US dollar has risen sharply as US government bond yields have surged – with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly topping 3% – while geopolitical risk perceptions have tentatively waned. As the dollar broke out on higher interest rate expectations, lofty bond yields also weighed on equity markets, pressuring major stock indexes despite what has generally turned out to be a very positive earnings season thus far. Many major index components, most notably in the financial and technology sectors, delivered results significantly better than consensus expectations, and some dramatically better. Still, however, stocks struggled to gain footing amid the looming specter of potentially higher inflation and interest rates.

The US dollar has been boosted not only by rising bond yields and rate expectations, but also by its relatively lagging counterparts, most notably the euro, pound, and yen. On Thursday, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected but also delivered comments that were considered more dovish than expected by euro traders, placing additional pressure on the shared currency. The Japanese yen has been in a consistent state of free-fall for much of the past month as the widening differential between Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy expectations has become increasingly clear. On Friday, the BoJ kept policy unchanged as widely expected, which did little to provide respite for the struggling yen. Also on Friday, the UK quarterly GDP estimate came out significantly lower than expected while the US quarterly GDP estimate was significantly higher than expected. This divergence helped prompt a substantial plunge for GBP/USD, extending its tumble of the past two weeks.

With the euro, pound, and yen all struggling against a resurgent dollar, the week ahead will be especially critical for determining whether the greenback extends its gains or not. Aside from the continuing focus on rising government bond yields, two major events will dominate the week’s schedule. First up will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Though the Fed is not expected to raise interest rates this time around after the last rate hike in March, expectations have been rising that the central bank may likely be on track to deliver four rate hikes this year instead of the three that were targeted in the March meeting. If such a likelihood is acknowledged or telegraphed in any way on Wednesday, the dollar could be boosted significantly further. The other critical event in the week ahead will be the US jobs report on Friday, which will be anchored both by the headline non-farm payrolls report as well as by key wage growth figures, which are closely watched indicators of inflation. Current consensus expectations are pointing to around 185,000 jobs added to the US economy in April after March’s disappointing 103,000 print, and a +0.2% rise in average hourly earnings after March’s in-line +0.3% reading. If both key aspects of the employment report are higher or at least in-line with expectations, the dollar may likely extend its rally. Any major disappointments, in contrast, could result in a pullback for the dollar.

Aside from the FOMC decision and US jobs report, the very busy week ahead will also feature other key releases. On Monday, the US Core PCE Price Index, which is seen as the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, will be released for March, and is expected to hold steady at +0.2%. Tuesday will feature the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision and statement, UK manufacturing PMI, Canadian GDP, and US manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, aside from the FOMC decision in the afternoon, New Zealand jobs data, UK construction PMI, and the ADP US private employment report will also be released. Thursday will include Australian and Canadian trade balance data as well as UK and US services PMI readings. Finally, Friday will bring not only the highly anticipated US jobs report, but also the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement.

本レポートに記載されている情報や見解は、一般的な情報としての使用のみを目的としたもので あり、通貨、CFD、その他あらゆる金融商品の、購入や売却に関する勧誘や依頼の意図は全くあ りません。本文書に盛り込まれている、いかなる見解や情報も、予告や通知なく変更することが あります。本文書は、特定の投資目的や、何らかの財務的背景、特定の受領者の意思などに沿っ て書かれ配布されたものではありません。本文書内で引用・言及されている、あらゆる過去の価 格データ・価格推移データは、当社独自の調査や分析に基づいており、当社はそのデータの提供 元やそのデータそのものの信頼性につき、いかなる保証もせず、また筆者や訳者、各国の支社・ 支店も、本文書の内容の正確性や完全性についても一切保証しません。本文書については英語版 を原版とし、翻訳版と原版で相違がある場合には、原版の内容が優先するものとします。本文書 の内容に基づく直接または間接の損失、そして本文書を信頼したことによる、いかなる人物や団 体が結果的に引き起こした損失についても、当社は一切その責を負いません。

先物取引、先物オプション取引、外国為替証拠金取引(またはFX)、CFD、その他、入金額より もレバレッジをかけて、より大きな金額で取引をする金融商品には、当初入金額を超える大きな 損失を被るリスクがあり、すべての人に適するわけではありません。レバレッジを大きくして取 引すると、その分リスクも高くなります。金スポットや銀の取引は、米国商品取引法(U.S. Commodity Exchange Act)の規制で保護されていません。また、差金決済取引(CFD)は米国 在住者の取引は許可されていません。外国為替証拠金取引(FX)や商品先物取引を行う前には、 投資目的、投資経験、リスク許容範囲等について十分検討する必要があります。本文書内にある、 いかなる見解、ニュース、調査、分析、価格その他についても、「本文書を読むいかなる人物や 団体も、FOREX.comが、投資、法的、税務に関して助言するものではないことを理解している」 ことを前提として、一般的な情報として提供されるものです。いかなる投資、法的、税務に関す る事柄についても、適切な専門家や助言者に相談をしてください。FOREX.comは、米国の商品先 物取引委員会(CFTC)、英国の金融行動監督機構(FCA)、オーストラリアのオーストラリア証 券投資委員会(ASIC)、日本の金融庁の規制を受けています。