Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels Mon 11 Dec 2017

FX – No clear signs of uniform USD strength revival with USD/JPY coming close to 114.00 major resistance

• EUR/USD – Dropped as expected and met the short-term support/downside target of 1.1730/1710 (see previous report) as it hit a low of 1.1731 before U.S. NFP data release.  Mix elements at this juncture where Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggesst that the minor degree bearish impulsive donwleg from 1.1940 high of 01 Dec 2017  is coming close to an inflection zone of 1.1730/1710 where it faces the risk of a minor rebound/configuration. Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.1710 & 1.1850 (former minor swing low area of 04 Dec 2017 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 01 Dec high to last Fri, 08 Dec 2017 low).
• GBP/USD –Breakthrough in Brexit negotiation talks, tested the 1.3505 upside trigger level but no clear bullish break above it (printed a high of 1.3520 before it retreated back into the minor “triangle range configuration” in place since 01 Dec 2017). No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.3375/20 (excess) key short-term support with an adjusted upside trigger level at 1.3520 where an hourly close above 1.3520 is likely to increase the odds to kick start another potential upleg to retest 1.3660 (medium-term swing high of 20 Sep 2017) in the first step.
• AUD/USD – Managed to hold at the longer-term major support zone of 0.7500/7475 (the major ascending trendline from mid Jan 2016 + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the decline from 08 Sep 2017 high to 06 Oct 2017 low projected from 13 Oct 2017 high). The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has shaped a bullish divergence signal (an indication of a slowdown in downside momentum of the recent slide) which increases the odds of a mean reversion rebound to retrace the decline seen from the 0.7653 high of 05 Dec 2017. Turn bullish above 0.7500  major support for a potential push up to retest last Fri pre NFP high of 0.7533 before the next intermediate resistance at 0.7560 (former minor swing low areas of 29 Nov/01 Dec 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 05 Dec high to last Fri, 08 Dec 2017 low).
• NZD/USD  - Managed to hold at the 0.6840/6820 key medium-term support. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.6840/6820 & 0.6870 (former minor swing low areas of 05 Dec/06 Dec 2017).
• USD/JPY – Squeezed up as expected and now it is coming close to the 113.80/114.00 major resistance of a complex sideways range configuration in place since 15 Dec 2016 high. The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator is now hovering at an extreme overbought level where indicates the risk of a mean reversion decline. Turn bearish below 114.00 major resistance for a potential push down to test its intermediate support at 113.00 (former minor swing high area of 04 Dec 2017) in the first step before 112.75 (minor ascending channel support from  28 Nov 2017 low).

 Commodities – Gold still showing signs of short-term weakness

• Gold – No change, maintain bearish bias below 1263 key short-term resistance for a potential push down to retest the 1225 major pull-back support of the former descending trendline from Sep 2011 high.  
• WTI Crude (Jan 2018) – Broke above 57.05 key short-term resistance that invalidated minor push down scenario. Another choppy price movement, prefer to turn neutral now between 59.00 (25 Nov 2017 swing high) & 56.55 (last Fri, 08 Dec 2017 low).

 Stock Indices (CFD) – Mix bag with short-term uptrend resumes for S&P500

• US SP 500 – Cleared above the 2648 upper limit of the neutrality zone. Turn bullish above 2636 key short-term support (minor congestion area of 07/08 Dec 2017 + minor ascending channel support from 15 Nov 2017 low) for a potential push up to target 2668 follow by 2683 (medium-term resistance zone, also the minor ascending channel resistance from 15 Nov 2017).
• Japan 225 – Tested and retreated right at the 23010 key medium-term resistance with a bearish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator.  Turn bearish below 2310 key medium-term resistance for a potential push down to retest the intermediate support zone of 22500/400 within a “triangle range” configuration” in place since  09 Nov 2017 high.
• Hong Kong 50 – Still holding above the major support of 28000 (ascending trendline from 28 Dec 2016 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going primary uptrend from 11 Feb 2016 low to 21 Nov 2017 high) with mix elements. Maintain neutrality stance between 28000 & 29300 (minor ascending trendline from 22 Nov 2017 high).
• Australia 200 – Tested and retreated from the 6013/6033 key medium-term resistance. Maintain bearish bias for a potential push down to retest 5940. An hourly close below 5950 is required to increase the conviction for another potential leg of corrective decline towards the next intermediate support at 5900 in the first step.
• Germany 30 – Tested the 13220 key medium-term resistance before it retreated in last Fri, 08 Dec European session (printed a high of 13243 but no hourly close above 13220).  Maintain bearish bias for potential push down to retest the intermediate support at 12995 in the first step (minor ascending trendline from 01 Dec 2017 low + minor swing low area of 07 Dec 2017 low).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform