Is the move higher in AUD/USD set to continue?
Will AUD/USD be able to break above resistance and continue higher? It may depend on the Q4 inflation data.
Share this:
Since bottoming on October 12th, 2022, at 0.6170, AUD/USD has been on a tear higher. In roughly three months, the pair retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the highs of 2022 to the lows of 2022, near 0.7027. But can AUD/USD continue to climb? It may depend on Wednesday’s release of Australia’s inflation data. Expectations are for Q4 CPI to increase to 7.5% YoY vs a Q3 reading of 7.3% YoY. This would be the highest level since 1990. In addition, Australia recently began printing a monthly CPI Indicator. Expectations for the new inflation reading are expected to be 7.6% in December vs a prior reading of 7.3%. It should also be noted that the RBA follows Trimmed Mean CPI. The Q3 reading was 6.1% YoY vs a Q4 expectation of 6.5% YoY. The RBA targets between 2% and 3% for this inflation reading.
AUD/USD topped on April 5th, 2022, at 0.7661 and traded lower in an orderly channel until October 13th, 2022. As mentioned above, the pair then bounced to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 high to the 2022 low, near 0.7027. In doing so, the pair bounced above the top trendline of the channel, as well as the 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages. AUD/USD is currently testing the top trendline of an ascending wedge that pair has been in since bouncing from the October lows.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
On a 240-minute timeframe, AUD/USD is banging up against resistance at the top trendline of the ascending wedge and the highs from January 18th, near 0.7063. If price breaks above, the next resistance level is the highs from mid-August 2022 at 0.7137, then the highs from June 6th, 2022 at 0.7283. However, if the resistance holds or if the CPI is weaker than expected, AUD/USD may be on the move lower. First support is at the lows from January 19th at 0.6878. Below there, price can fall to the confluence of the 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages at 0.6814 and 0.6791 (see daily). The next level of support is at the bottom trendline of the rising wedge, near 0.6750.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
AUD/USD is sitting at a key price level with resistance close by. Will price be able to break above this resistance and continue higher? It may depend on the Q4 inflation data.
Since bottoming on October 12th, 2022, at 0.6170, AUD/USD has been on a tear higher. In roughly three months, the pair retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the highs of 2022 to the lows of 2022, near 0.7027. But can AUD/USD continue to climb? It may depend on Wednesday’s release of Australia’s inflation data. Expectations are for Q4 CPI to increase to 7.5% YoY vs a Q3 reading of 7.3% YoY. This would be the highest level since 1990. In addition, Australia recently began printing a monthly CPI Indicator. Expectations for the new inflation reading are expected to be 7.6% in December vs a prior reading of 7.3%. It should also be noted that the RBA follows Trimmed Mean CPI. The Q3 reading was 6.1% YoY vs a Q4 expectation of 6.5% YoY. The RBA targets between 2% and 3% for this inflation reading.
AUD/USD topped on April 5th, 2022, at 0.7661 and traded lower in an orderly channel until October 13th, 2022. As mentioned above, the pair then bounced to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 high to the 2022 low, near 0.7027. In doing so, the pair bounced above the top trendline of the channel, as well as the 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages. AUD/USD is currently testing the top trendline of an ascending wedge that pair has been in since bouncing from the October lows.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
Trade AUD/USD now: Login or Open a new account!
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
On a 240-minute timeframe, AUD/USD is banging up against resistance at the top trendline of the ascending wedge and the highs from January 18th, near 0.7063. If price breaks above, the next resistance level is the highs from mid-August 2022 at 0.7137, then the highs from June 6th, 2022 at 0.7283. However, if the resistance holds or if the CPI is weaker than expected, AUD/USD may be on the move lower. First support is at the lows from January 19th at 0.6878. Below there, price can fall to the confluence of the 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages at 0.6814 and 0.6791 (see daily). The next level of support is at the bottom trendline of the rising wedge, near 0.6750.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
AUD/USD is sitting at a key price level with resistance close by. Will price be able to break above this resistance and continue higher? It may depend on the Q4 inflation data.
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
Related tags:
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Gold forecast: Rising yields become too hot for gold, but the outlook is far from bearish
Gold and silver prices took a plunge today, with the former down 3% and the latter falling some 5% by mid European session, before bouncing off their lows. The losses come after the metals remained largely supported until last week, despite the big dollar rally and surging bond yields as we have seen in recent weeks. But it simply got too much, and the metals succumbed to pressure today.
USD into a Massive Week as Yields Fly and Gold Breaks
It’s a huge week with PCE and NFP, but it’s what’s happening off of the calendar that demands attention with US yields flying to fresh multi-decade highs.
USDJPY Forecast Intervention Fears Clash with Dollar Strength
Recent trading sessions have produced mixed results for the Japanese yen. By the end of last week, USD/JPY had fallen by more than 1.00%, reflecting a modest recovery in the yen. However, the start of this week has seen the pair move slightly back in favor of the U.S. dollar, posting gains of around 0.04%.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.