AUD/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week | September 28, 2026

The week has started with stocks, gold, silver and bitcoin all falling, as crude oil rebounded and bond yields pushed further higher. Trump refusing to agree to Tehran’s proposal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz has left the markets disappointed. Still, reports that mediators are expected to hold talks with the two sides on an amended version of the 7-day proposal that Iran presented, keeps hopes alive that we may see some progress. Meanwhile, the focus will also turn to data. Upside surprises in jobs data could take cement another rate hike expectations for the October FOMC meeting. But after the sharp dollar rally, I am expecting to see some stabilisation in major FX pairs in the coming days. Among the pairs to watch is the AUD/USD this week as it trades around the 200-day average. If we see an expected hawkish hike by the RBA on Tuesday, this should keep the longer term bullish AUD/USD forecast intact.

 

US dollar could stabilise after sharp rally

 

At the start of the week, the focus was again on oil prices after the weekend news. But as the week progresses, economic data could take centre stage as the main driver of the dollar. After a steady run of hawkish Fedspeak, markets need fresh evidence of economic resilience to reinforce expectations of a rate hike on 28 October.

 

Arguably, it will be the August CPI report on 14 October that will be the main event, but Friday’s September jobs report could also prove pivotal in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move. The market expects payrolls to rise by 90,000, although there is a risk that August’s surprisingly strong 162,000 increase will be revised lower. This week’s other labour market indicators include ADP and JOLTS. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favourite inflation measure will also be release this week. The August PCE inflation, due on Wednesday, is indeed an important release, although its impact on rate expectations is likely to be more limited than that of the jobs figures, or CPI the following week.

 

Unless payrolls deliver another substantial upside surprise, however, the dollar may struggle to sustain its recent momentum. Oil prices may not be ready for a meaningful retreat, but any fresh reports that Washington and Tehran are working towards a deal over the Strait of Hormuz could limit the risk of another leg higher in energy prices. That, in turn, could potentially help stabilise bond markets and improve risk sentiment, removing some of the dollar’s recent support.

 

With much of the recent pricing around Fed tightening arguably reflected in the major pairs, there is a good chance we could see currencies that are already showing some relative strength like the AUD to outperform this week.

 

AUD/USD forecast: RBA set to deliver a hawkish hike

 

The AUD/USD is the currency pair of the week because not only do we have the above mentioned macro releases to look forward to from the US, but we also have the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision. The RBA announces its latest policy decision in the early hours of Tuesday, with a 25bp rate hike to 4.60% widely expected. Markets have fully priced in the move, and consensus is unanimous, leaving the Australian dollar’s reaction largely dependent on how much further tightening Governor Michele Bullock signals may be required.

 

I suspected her to keep the door open to additional hikes. Inflationary pressures remain persistent, labour market remains tight and economic growth has proven to be more resilient than anticipated in Australia.

 

Against this backdrop, the RBA is unlikely to signal that its tightening cycle is over. Therefore, any strong indication that further rate increases remain on the table should help sustain market expectations for higher rates and provide continued support to the Australian dollar.

 

Technical AUD/USD forecast: 200-day average being tested

 

Due to the above macro reasoning, I suspect the AUD/USD may be able to hold its ground around the 200-day average where it was also testing prior support and resistance between the 0.7000 to 0.7025 area.

 

 

If we see a bullish reversal formation here, then expect to see some recovery towards the next resistance levels at 0.7090ish, followed by 0.7120ish. Above that, the extent of further gains will depend on the RBA’s willingness to tighten policy further and the broader direction of the US dollar.

 

If the selling continues, however, then 0.6950 and then 0.6900 could be the next stops for the AUD/USD.