Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Hits Support- Break or Bounce?

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

AUD/USD reversal off trend resistance now testing uptrend support after RBA holds rates
Risk for price inflection into this support early in the month- ADP employment on tap
Resistance 6592-6605 (key), 6650, 6723 - Support 6469 (key), 6404, 6351/57

The Australian Dollar is poised to snap a three-week rally with AUD/USD marking a fifth consecutive daily decline on the heels of the RBA rate decision. The decline takes Aussie into the median-line of the yearly uptrend, and the focus now turns to whether price can stabilize here or if a deeper decline will unfold into November trade. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that AUD/USD was testing, “uptrend support and the focus is on possible inflection off this slope. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 6565 IF price is heading for a break lower on this stretch with a close below the median-line needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Aussie rallied more than 2.7% off those lows but failed to mark a weekly close above 6565 with a five-day decline now approaching the median-line. Once again, the threat for inflection rises into this slope.

Weekly support remains with the July low-week close (LWC) at 6469. Note that the 2022 trendline (red) converges on this level over the next few weeks and a break / weekly close below would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 38.2% retracement / 52-week moving average at 6404/15 and the 100% extension of the September decline / February high-week close (HWC) at 6351/57- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Broader bullish invalidation rests with the 2025 LWC at 6290.

Resistance stands with the 2025 HWC and the 61.8% retracement of the September decline at 6592-6605. Note that the 2022 trendline converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this region. A topside breach / close above this hurdle would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in pace / resumption of the yearly uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2025 high-close at 6650 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2024 decline at 6723.

Bottom line: AUD/USD is testing uptrend support on the heels of the RBA rate decision, and the focus is on possible inflection off the median-line. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 6605 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6469 needed to fuel the next leg of this decline within the broader uptrend.

Keep in mind that Non-Farm Payrolls will be postponed for a second month amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and traders will be closely watching tomorrow’s ADP employment report for insight into labor market conditions. Stay nimble into the November opening-range and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

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