Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Surges 5%- Bulls Face Key Resistance Test

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Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD has rebounded sharply with a three-week rally after a steep prior decline, signaling potential for resumption of the broader uptrend.
The rally is now testing pivotal resistance- inflection risk rises.
A sustained move higher would support continuation of the broader uptrend while failure risks a pullback following the recent advance.
Resistance 7208/14 (key), 7295-7308, 7426- Support 7137, 7074, 7028 (key)

AUD/USD has staged a strong recovery in recent weeks, reversing a sharp decline and driving price back into a key resistance zone. The rebound highlights improving near-term momentum, but the broader outlook now hinges on how price responds at this barrier. A sustained move higher would reinforce the bullish trend, while rejection could signal a pause or pullback after the recent advance. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we stressed that the Aussie rally was vulnerable as the March opening-range was taking shape just below resistance. We noted that, “Losses should be limited to 6913 IF Aussie is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7213 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” The March range resolved to the downside with AUD/USD plunging more than 4.9% off the yearly high. Price briefly registered an intraday low at 6834 before rebounding sharply off the 25% parallel.

The subsequent recovery has now extended more than 5.9% off the March low with the rally failing at a pivotal resistance last week at 7208/14- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the broader 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the April 2025 advance. The immediate focus is on a reaction off this level with the bulls vulnerable while below.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending of the late-March low. Initial support rests with the August 2022 swing high at 7137 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement at 7074. Near-term bullish invalidation is now raised to the 50% retracement at 7028.

A topside breach / daily close above this key pivot zone is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards the 75% parallel (currently near 7240s) and the next major technical consideration at 7295-7308- a region defined by the 2019 swing high and the 61.8% of the November advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the at the 2022 high-week close (HWC) at 7427.

Bottom line: The Aussie rally has extended into a pivotal resistance zone- risk for inflection off this level. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 7074 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7214 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Event risk is limited until next week’s highly anticipated Fed rate decision and updated Core Personal Consumption Expenditure figures on tap. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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