Bitcoin Analysis: BTC remains weak below 64k

Bitcoin is once again showing a lack of short-term strength. Over the last 2 trading sessions, BTC has accumulated a decline of approximately -2.5%, reflecting a relevant selling bias and a reduced ability to recover ground.

For now, the broader outlook remains marked by indecision. Market attention remains focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision in the United States, while concerns around the Clarity Act have also limited Bitcoin’s appeal. If these catalysts continue to generate caution, BTC could keep facing a phase of weakness or lack of direction over the next few trading sessions.

Is market activity declining?

This week could be key for confidence around Bitcoin. On one hand, the Federal Reserve decision is expected tomorrow, and the market will be watching the tone of the statement on inflation and economic conditions in the United States.

A more restrictive Fed could open the door to higher interest rates over the coming months, which would affect appetite for risk assets such as BTC. Higher rates can increase the cost of debt and limit available liquidity for consumption and investment, reducing the appeal of risk markets.

It is also important to watch the behavior of the U.S. dollar. In recent sessions, the DXY, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers, has held above the 101-point area and near 2026 highs.

This strength reflects relevant demand for the dollar, partly associated with expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve. At the same time, a stronger dollar can limit appetite for cryptocurrencies, as USD-denominated investments gain relative appeal compared with higher-risk assets.

Source: TradingEconomics

This is also accompanied by a loss of momentum around the Clarity Act, a bill focused on establishing a stronger regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States. Optimism around its approval has weakened ahead of the August legislative recess, especially as no major progress has been seen pointing to approval before the end of 2026.

This loss of regulatory momentum is relevant for the crypto market, as greater regulatory clarity has been one of the factors investors have been waiting for over the last few months. For now, the lack of concrete progress could continue to limit a more consistent recovery in demand for Bitcoin.

These catalysts are already starting to be reflected in market activity. Open Interest, which measures open buy and sell positions across different exchanges, has fallen back below 22 billion dollars and has maintained a downward slope over recent sessions.

Source: CryptoQuant

This decline in Open Interest, together with the pullback in BTC’s price, suggests that some long positions may be leaving the market. This reinforces the idea of lower activity and greater caution, in a context marked by the Fed decision and regulatory uncertainty.

As long as concerns over higher rates in the United States and the lack of progress on the regulatory front remain in place, Bitcoin could continue to face difficulties stabilizing demand. This scenario could keep a phase of indecision or weakness in place over the next few trading sessions.

 

Confidence still shows no relevant improvement

Looking at the behavior of the market’s fear and greed index, confidence remains stuck near the 35-point area, still within the “fear” zone and far from neutral levels.

Source: Coinmarketcap

This is important because, if confidence fails to stabilize, the environment could remain less favorable for demand across the cryptocurrency market. As long as the indicator remains in fear territory, Bitcoin could continue to face a phase of indecision over the next few sessions.

 

Technical forecast for Bitcoin

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Potential sideways range begins to emerge: Although Bitcoin maintains a long-term bearish trend line, the lack of direction has become more relevant in the short term. For now, BTC’s main movements have started to respect a zone between resistance near 66,700 and support around 57,700. If this lack of direction continues, a more consistent sideways range could begin to form over the next few trading sessions.
   
• MACD: Now, the MACD maintains a histogram with movements near the neutral 0 line. This suggests balance in the strength of short-term moving averages. If this behavior continues, it could reflect an increasingly relevant phase of indecision.
   
• RSI: A similar dynamic can be seen in the RSI, as the indicator remains near the neutral 50 level. This suggests balance between bullish and bearish impulses over the last 14 sessions, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term indecision phase.
   

Key levels:

• 66,700 – Important resistance: This key bullish barrier corresponds to the most relevant 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the chart. It also coincides with the highs from previous weeks. Price movements above this level could fully break the dominant bearish trend line and open room for a more relevant buying bias over the coming weeks.
   
• 61,800 – Near-term barrier: This relevant neutral level is where several price pullbacks have been concentrated over the last few weeks. If BTC continues to move near this area, a phase of indecision could be reinforced and a possible sideways range could gain more relevance.
   
• 57,700 – Definitive support: This recent low zone coincides with the 2026 lows. Movements below this level could reinforce a dominant selling bias and open room for an important extension of the bearish trend line that has dominated for several months.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25