Bitcoin Analysis: The Cryptocurrency Closes the Year Below $90,000

The lack of volatility in Bitcoin has begun to consolidate in a consistent manner. Over the past five trading sessions, average price variation has been slightly above 2%, a relatively low level for BTC, whose price swings in previous weeks exceeded 5%. This persistent indecision has allowed a structural weakness to become part of Bitcoin’s behavior as 2025 ends. For now, a neutral tone remains in place, as several confidence indicators and supply-and-demand metrics point to limited short-term investor interest. In addition, the recent recovery in other assets—such as the U.S. dollar—may be reducing the relative appeal of the cryptocurrency market. As long as these factors persist, Bitcoin’s indecision is likely to remain relevant during the early sessions of 2026.

Confidence in Bitcoin Has Failed to Recover

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin has faced increasingly challenging sessions in its attempt to sustain consistent buying strength. At present, investment dynamics do not show clear signs of a solid recovery in market confidence. Open Interest, which measures the total number of open long and short positions in the institutional BTC market, has posted a notable rebound, reaching levels close to $29 billion, not seen since early December 2025. However, Bitcoin’s price has failed to follow this recovery in Open Interest, suggesting that the increase in positions may be concentrated in short positions rather than long exposure. This behavior indicates that demand has not recovered in a meaningful way and may be signaling a new phase of weakness in the institutional Bitcoin market.

Source: Cryptoquant

Meanwhile, when looking at crypto market confidence indicators, the Fear & Greed Index has managed to recover to around 32 points, but it continues to oscillate within the “fear” zone. This highlights that the recovery in confidence remains limited in the short term and that there is still no sufficiently strong outlook to sustain consistent buying demand in Bitcoin. As long as the index fails to move at least toward neutral territory, the lack of confidence is likely to continue limiting buying pressure in the sessions ahead.

Source: Coinmarketcap

Taking all of the above into account, the lack of dynamism in the institutional market, reflected in Open Interest behavior, combined with the persistent weakness in confidence indicators, appears to be acting as a set of key fundamental catalysts preventing a solid recovery in Bitcoin demand. This combination reinforces the neutral sentiment currently dominating BTC in the short term and, if sustained, could once again lead to renewed selling pressure in the coming trading sessions.

 

Does the Dollar Reduce Bitcoin’s Appeal?

In recent sessions, the U.S. dollar has shown a consistent recovery, reflected in the performance of the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against other assets. The index has now moved back above the 98-point level, maintaining a positive slope that suggests renewed dollar strength in financial markets.

Source: TradingEconomics

This increase in the dollar’s appeal may be linked either to rising risk aversion or to higher U.S. Treasury yields. In both cases, the typical outcome is reduced exposure to volatile assets, such as Bitcoin, and greater interest in assets perceived as more stable or in holding dollar liquidity toward year-end. This environment could continue to weigh on BTC’s short-term attractiveness and open the door to additional selling pressure in the coming sessions.

 

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• The bearish trend dominates the market: As 2025 comes to an end, the most relevant technical factor continuing to dominate BTC price action is the long-standing bearish trend, which has led Bitcoin to close the year below $90,000. So far, no meaningful short-term bullish corrections have emerged to threaten this structure, leaving it as the primary technical reference for the sessions ahead. That said, the lack of directional movement has also encouraged the formation of a short-term sideways range, which, if it persists, could give way to a neutral phase in early 2026, providing some relief from the prevailing downtrend.
   

• RSI: The RSI has gradually moved closer to the neutral 50 level, indicating a balance between buying and selling momentum over the past 14 sessions. If this behavior continues, a phase of ongoing indecision may continue to shape BTC price action in the short term.
   

• MACD: The MACD shows a similar pattern, with its histogram oscillating near the neutral zero line, reflecting neutrality in short-term moving average momentum. This setup reinforces the likelihood that the current indecisive phase will continue to dominate Bitcoin’s short-term behavior.
   

Key Levels:

• 92,292 – Key resistance: A level aligned with the long-term bearish trendline and the highs seen in recent weeks. A sustained break above this zone could put the bearish structure at risk and open the door to a more meaningful bullish bias in the early days of 2026.
   
• 85,430 – Nearby barrier: A support zone associated with recent lows. As long as price remains above this level, a short-term sideways range may continue to develop.
   
• 80,413 – Major support: A level that coincides with the 2025 lows and sits near a key psychological area. A break below this zone could trigger a much more dominant bearish bias, keeping the downtrend as the key structure during the first part of 2026.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25