Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC/USD 26% Surge Rejected – Breakdown Risk Builds

Bitcoin Technical Forecast: BTC/USD Weekly & Daily Trade Levels

BTC/USD rallied more than 26% from the February low before stalling at a major resistance zone tied to prior breakdown levels.
The rejection snapped an eight-day advance and has already triggered a pullback from the weekly highs.
A sustained move below near-term support would confirm resumption of the broader downtrend, while a recovery above resistance is needed to shift momentum back in favor of the bulls.

Bitcoin’s recovery from February lows has stalled after running into a well-defined resistance zone, halting the strongest rally of the year. The rejection from this area has shifted attention back to support levels, where the market will need to hold to avoid reigniting downside pressure. While the rebound improved near-term momentum, the broader structure remains fragile unless buyers can reclaim lost ground. The coming sessions are likely to determine whether this move was a temporary bounce or the start of a more sustained recovery attempt. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD technical charts.

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Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

In last month’s Cryptocurrency Forecast we noted that Bitcoin was, “attempting its first meaningful recovery since the January sell-off and the immediate focus is on potential inflection near 70,238/531 IF reached. A close above would keep the near-term focus higher in BTC/USD. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 76,159 for the October downtrend to remain viable with a close below 62,795 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Bitcoin rallied more than 26% off the February low with the advance exhausting into key resistance yesterday at 74,434-76,159- a region defined by the 2025 low, the 100% extension of the February rally, and the 2025 low-close. Note that the 25% parallel converges on this zone and keeps price within the lower band of the 2025 pitchfork. The bulls remain vulnerable while below this slope with BTC/USD already off more than 6.7% from the weekly high.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows the magnitude of the reversal after snapping an eight-day rally yesterday. Initial support is now in view at yearly low-week (LWC) / low-day close (LDC) at 70,283/531. Look for a reaction there IF reached. Ultimately, a break / daily close below the 61.8% retracement of the February rally and the March open at 66,074/982 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the yearly low-close at 62,795 backed by the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 advance at 57,885 and the 100% extension of the October decline at 52,204. Both these levels represent areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

A breach / daily close above the February channel would be needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance eyed at the 2025 low-day close (LDC) at 79,127. Broader bearish invalidation remains at the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the October decline at 83,712-85,064. Strength surpassing this threshold is needed to invalidate the multi-month downtrend and put the bulls back in control.

Bottom line: Bitcoin has completed two-equal legs off the yearly lows and the correction within the broader downtrend may be complete here. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 76,159 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 66,074 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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