Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC/USD Surges 30%—Breakout Rally Faces First Test

Bitcoin Technical Forecast: BTC/USD Weekly & Daily Trade Levels

BTC/USD has surged from the March low, breaking out of a multi-month downtrend.
The rally is now approaching the first key resistance hurdles following the breakout.
A hold above former resistance would support continuation of the advance.
The next move hinges on whether buyers can sustain control at current levels.

Bitcoin has staged a powerful recovery in recent weeks, with BTC/USD breaking out of a multi-month downtrend and establishing a strong upside bias. The move reflects a decisive shift in momentum following the early-year selloff, with price now approaching a key resistance zone that could determine the next phase of the advance. The reaction at this level will be critical in assessing whether the breakout has further room to run or if the rally begins to lose steam. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD technical charts heading into May.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Bitcoin setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

In my March Bitcoin Forecast we noted that BTC/USD was testing key technical resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 76,159 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 66,074 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Bitcoin plunged more than 14.5% off those highs and despite marking a weekly close at 65,954, the bears could not sustain the break. The subsequent rebound has now climbed more than 20% off the March lows with the rally breaking above pivotal resistance last week at the 2025 swing low / low close at 74,434-76,159. Note that the 25% parallel converged on this threshold and the breakout suggests a larger recovery may be underway.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows BTC/USD breaking out of the January pitchfork with an embedded ascending channel guiding the advance off the yearly low. Initial support rests back at the 74,434-76,159 pivot zone with medium-term bullish invalidation now raised to the low-week & low-day closes (LWC / LDC) at 70,283/531. Losses below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger breakdown is underway. Subsequent support rests at the March low-day close at 65,954 and the yearly low-close at 62,795.

Initial resistance has already been tested twice at the 2025 low-day close at 79,127 and is backed closely by the 100% extension of the February advance at 81,038. Note that channel resistance converges on this threshold in the first half of the month and a breach / weekly close above is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2025 LWC and the 38.2% retracement of the October decline at 83,712-85,273 and the 2026 yearly open at 87,496.

Bottom line: Bitcoin has rallied more than 31% off the yearly low with BTC/USD breaking out of a multi-month downtrend. The rally is now approaching the first major test of resistance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 74,434 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 79,127 needed to fuel a push towards 81,038- look for a larger reaction there IF reached for guidance.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.