Bitcoin, Silver Price Outlook: Downside Risks Paused on Positive Trump Comments

Downside risks are easing across risk assets including bitcoin, and precious metals including silver, as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week. Trump signaled progress in negotiations and a five-day postponement of strikes on Iranian power plants. Caution is still warranted.

CNN Fear and Greed Index

The last time the indicator dropped to 10, markets were facing tariff risks that drove the April 2025 drawdown, nearly one year ago. Markets may now be approaching another momentum reset in line with the current Middle East-driven declines, keeping investors focused on key levels for potential dip buying opportunities. These levels are approaching alongside renewed deal optimism between Trump and Iran; however, another leg lower cannot be ruled out given the need for a concrete resolution around nuclear agreements and regime dynamics. Should today’s lows be breached across markets, extended downside could align with levels last seen in 2024, ahead of Trump’s election.

Key Levels to Watch:
• Bitcoin: 75,000 – 80,000 upside, 60,000 – 48,000 downside
• Silver: 75 – 80 upside, 60 – 48 downside

Looking at the levels across bitcoin and silver, the ranges appear notably similar. This is not implying correlation, but rather an observation.

Bitcoin Weekly Outlook – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Although the setup on bitcoin suggests a completed corrective phase, price action is still reflecting bearish pressure below the 75,000 mark, in line with weakened sentiment around the Middle East conflict and its broader global impact.

The bullish structure can still hold if price stabilizes above 75,000 without breaking below the 60,000 zone, which aligns with:

• 2022 oversold momentum
• the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2022–2025 uptrend
• the 2021 highs and the full pattern target of the bearish wedge between November 2025 and January 2026

Bullish scenario: a close above 75,000 and 80,000 would reinforce upside targets toward 90,000, 100,000, 115,000, and 130,000, before extending toward 150,000 and 200,000 in longer-term projections.

Bearish scenario: a close below 60,000 exposes further downside toward 56,000 and 48,000. In more extreme scenarios, a move toward 38,000 could present a longer-term buying opportunity.

Silver Daily Outlook – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

In silver, price action is reflecting the bearish structure of a flag pattern, currently rebounding from the 60 psychological level following Trump’s positive comments. A move back below 65 and 60 would expose another leg lower toward the 50–48 range, a key long-term support zone that previously acted as resistance over the past 45 years, and a potential area for long-term dip buying opportunities.

On the upside, a close above 70 and 75 would reopen targets toward 80, 85, and 90, bringing price back into a medium-term bullish range within the channel structure, before confirming a breakout above 100 and extending toward long-term projections at 130 and 200.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves