British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Soars to Three-Year Highs

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

British Pound poised to mark outside weekly reversal- surges from support at former resistance
GBP/USD breakout rallies to multi-year highs- PCE, NFPs on tap into monthly cross
Resistance 1.3749 (key), 1.4003, 1.4158- Support 1.3633, 1.3414, 1.3270 (key)

Sterling has covered the entire monthly range this week with a rally of more than 2.1% breaking through the June range highs. The advance its now testing resistance at the 2022 swing high with major event risk on tap into the monthly cross. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that the GBP/USD was, “trading at uptrend resistance heading into June and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the January advance may be vulnerable while below this slope. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3240 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above parallel resistance needed to mark trend resumption.” Sterling held slope resistance for more than three-weeks with a defense of support this week attempting to mark an outside-weekly reversal candle. The advance is testing resistance today at the 2022 swing high near 1.3749 and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to this pivot zone.

Initial weekly support now rests with the June opening-range highs near 1.3633 and is backed by the 78.6 % retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.3414. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the April high-week close (HWC) at 1.3270- losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway towards the 2023 HWC at 1.3092.

A breach / weekly close above 1.3749 is needed to keep the immediate advance viable with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 61.8% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.4003 and the 2021 HWC at 1.4158- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: A breakout of the monthly opening-range takes GBP/USD into initial resistance at the 2022 swing highs with weekly momentum pressing into overbought territory today. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses would need to be limited to 1.3632 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3749 needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data tomorrow (core PCE) with Non-Farm Payrolls on tap next week into the July open. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

GBP/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.