BTC/USD Outlook: Pressure builds for a Bitcoin breakout

• Bitcoin continues carving higher highs and lows
• Tech earnings add to breakout potential

BTC/USD continues to carve out a series of higher highs and higher lows on the H4 timeframe while compressing beneath resistance at $65555. The level has already rejected one false breakout, with another test arriving in early Asian trade today. Importantly, the pullback from resistance has so far been shallow, suggesting buyers remain willing to step in on dips, increasing the likelihood of another attempt at a more sustained breakout.

The oscillators continue to favour the upside. RSI (14) sits above 50 at 60.6, while MACD has staged a bullish crossover and continues to trend higher in positive territory, reinforcing the improving momentum picture.

Source: TradingView

Rather than chasing a breakout pre-emptively, I'd prefer to wait for confirmation. Should the price break above $65555 and hold, followed by a successful backtest and bounce from the level as support, long positions could be considered given the improved risk-reward profile. Initial upside targets would be the June 18 swing high of $64600 before attention turns to $67260, the June 16 peak.

Failure to hold above $65555 after a breakout would weaken the bullish setup, while a break back beneath the rising trendline and recent higher lows would invalidate the immediate upside bias.

One potential catalyst worth watching is this week's heavyweight technology earnings calendar. SK Hynix reports on Wednesday morning in Asia, followed by Alphabet and Tesla in the U.S., before Intel rounds out the week on Thursday. Given the sizeable drawdown already seen across many AI-related names, particularly memory and semiconductor stocks, the prospect of positive earnings surprises may be enough to trigger another squeeze higher in those stocks.

Source: TradingView

Whether that translates into further gains for Bitcoin is less clear than it may have been in the past. Bitcoin has, at times, traded alongside broader risk appetite, suggesting it could benefit if AI-related stocks rally. However, the correlation matrix above suggests that relationship has weakened recently.

While Bitcoin has demonstrated a reasonably strong positive relationship with Nasdaq futures over the past 20 trading days, along with an inverse relationship with VIX futures, those correlations have largely broken down over the past week. Relationships across several traditional risk proxies have proven weak or, in some cases, non-existent.

That suggests technology earnings could still provide the spark for a breakout, but investors shouldn't assume Bitcoin will simply follow if AI-related equities rally. Recent price action suggests the cryptocurrency has been trading more on its own idiosyncratic drivers.

Equally, the opposing argument is that some momentum-focused traders who once gravitated towards crypto have likely shifted into AI-related equities, meaning a squeeze higher in those stocks, as we're seeing in Asia today, could just as easily attract capital towards AI-related equities instead of Bitcoin.