Open an Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an Account
✖

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Jumps After 1.3500 Defense

By :   James Stanley , Sr. Strategist
February 12, 2026 5:29 PM

While USD-weakness has remained in the equation there’s been a recent tilt of strength in USD/CAD, helped along by a defense of a major psychological level at the 1.3500 handle from last week.

I looked into the pair a couple of weeks ago as that test was happening and as I shared then, there has been a propensity for inflections to show around these types of levels. Last year saw a lot of reaction on both sides of the 1.4000 handle and this comes after the 1.4500 level helped to mark a significant reversal in February.

The 1.3500 level didn’t quite come into play, but that doesn’t mean that it didn’t have impact, as this is what sellers shied away from in June that ultimately led to an ascending triangle – and then a bullish breakout in the pair.

For this year that 1.3500 level finally came into play, albeit briefly, before bringing a strong rally in the pair that ran into the end of last week.

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

USD/CAD Shorter-Term

It was the 1.3727 level that ultimately stalled the move and this is a price that has some prior relevance, as this helped to set a significant swing low back in August and September of last year. Sellers used that resistance last week to run another push towards the lows, but notably, this week’s occurrence stopped just shy of the 1.3500 level, illustrating a degree of bullish anticipation.

That has been followed by a bounce up for a resistance test at prior support in a zone ranging from 1.3629-1.3646, and this begins to set up the pair as one of the more attractive venues for scenarios of USD-strength ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.

USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

USD/CAD Big Picture

While we wind towards the end of the week there still remains an open door for volatility, especially in the USD and related pairs as the CPI report carries intense importance given the focus on rate expectations around the Fed. But from the weekly chart we can see an extended underside wick following that test of 1.3500, and while the higher-low is slight from this basis, the importance of that reaction stands out.

If we do get a bullish reaction that closes the weekly candle as green (or blue in my chart’s case) then we could also make the argument for a hammer formation to go along with that higher-low, which would further illustrate bullish potential for the pair as we move into the middle of Q1.

Sitting overhead it’s the 1.3925 level that stands out as important, as that helped to build an evening star formation on the weekly that ultimately led to the 1.3500 test.

USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2026