Crude Oil, Gold Price Outlook: WTI Drops 7% as Hormuz Risks Unwind, Gold Tests 4,880

WTI has fallen over 7% this week toward the lower end of the $80 range, as easing tensions and the reopening of Hormuz reduce supply disruption risks. This has supported broader market sentiment, with US indices up over 3% this week and more than 10% from March 2026 lows.

In contrast, precious metals remain capped by key resistance levels, with gold at 4,880 and silver near 82, both requiring confirmation for further upside.

Focusing on one key level at a time helps filter out headline noise and confirms trend sustainability across markets.

Crude Oil Price Outlook: 2 Week Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The latest decline in crude oil has broken below the previously outlined bullish scenario on the 2-week timeframe, shifting the outlook into a transitional zone between bullish continuation and potential bearish consolidation.

Bearish Scenario

With prices now near the lower end of the $80 range, key support levels lie at 78 and 74, aligning with highs from last year’s Middle East conflict. A breakdown below these levels could expose 67, signaling a broader, longer-term consolidation phase for crude.

Bullish Scenario

A close back above 88, 93, and 110 on WTI would revive upside momentum, targeting the 118 yearly high, followed by the 135–150 range. This would likely be amid renewed disruption in energy supply and continued geopolitical pressure around Hormuz.

Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

On the daily chart, gold is forming a consolidation pattern with higher lows from the 4080 level and stable highs below the 4880 resistance. This structure resembles the setup seen after the February rebound into the March 2026 highs, leaving two scenarios in focus: a breakdown below trendline support or a breakout above resistance.

Bullish scenario
A close above 4880 would open the path toward 4980, where pullback risks may emerge. These levels align with the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels of the March 2026 decline. A sustained move above 4980 would reinforce the longer-term outlook toward 5250, the key barrier before extending toward the 5600–6000 range or entering another consolidation phase.

Bearish scenario
A break below the rising trendline from the 4080 lows, and below 4660 and 4480, would extend downside risks toward 4300, 4180, and 4120 as potential support zones. A deeper move could expose 3500 and 3000 as longer-term accumulation areas, potentially aligning with a broader correction in silver toward the $50 zone.

Long-term levels remain critical in distinguishing structural shifts from headline-driven volatility, particularly within the context of the US–Iran negotiations and the reopening of the strait of Hormuz.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves