Crude Oil, Silver Price Outlook: WTI Slides to 91, Silver Surges Above 76

WTI slides back toward 91, while silver surges above 76 as easing US–Iran tensions once again shift market sentiment, bringing key technical levels and the potential reopening timeline of the Strait of Hormuz into focus.

Headline-driven volatility continues to swing commodities between critical price zones. Crude oil remains more than 50% above its yearly lows, while gold and silver trade roughly 16%–30% below their yearly highs. This dynamic keeps attention on dominant trends and key levels needed to confirm any meaningful reversal, as economic data and developments around Hormuz continue to evolve.

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Bullish momentum across US indices remains firm, though divergence between the Dow Jones and Nasdaq is becoming more evident. At the same time, crude oil and precious metals are trading within wide volatility ranges, driven by headlines and presenting ongoing trading opportunities.

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

• Crude oil prices are easing toward the lower end of the 90s range amid improving sentiment around a potential US–Iran agreement. This brings the 91–88 support zone back into focus, aligning with the highs of 2023 and acting as a critical level that separates a sustained bullish structure from a more defined shift toward downside pressure.
• Previous optimistic headlines have already pushed crude through multiple support zones—first 93–88, then 84–82, and last 76–74. This last range aligns with last year’s Middle East conflict highs and represents a key level for confirming a broader unwind in the inflation risks and crude risk premium if broken.
• A close below this zone would expose prices to the 67 level, a long-standing trendline that has acted as both support and resistance since at least 2019.
• On the upside, a move back above the 98–100 range would open the path toward a retest of yearly highs and 2022 peaks near 115 and 120. At those levels, price action may either face rejection or break higher toward the 135–160 zone, reinforcing elevated global inflation risks.

Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

On the daily chart, silver is revisiting a key resistance zone near $77, which could invalidate a repeat of the March 2026 drawdown pattern and attract renewed buying interest in precious metals.

Upside scenario:
A close above 77, followed by 80 and 84, would bring price action back within the channel defined between the March 2026 lows and late April highs. This would open the path toward 86 and 96, before a potential extension back toward 120.

These levels align with the 0.382, 0.50, and 0.618 Fibonacci extensions of the April 2025 – January 2026 – March 2026 trend structure. A sustained move above 120 would reinforce the longer-term outlook toward 200.

Downside scenario (still valid):
A close below 73.50 would expose downside targets at 69.50, 65, and 61. At these levels, silver may either stabilize or extend lower toward 55 and 48.

The 48 level remains particularly significant, aligning with a multi-decade resistance zone dating back to the 1990 highs, and could offer a long-term accumulation area—consistent with broader precious metals scenarios.

Key Takeaway

Long-term levels remain essential in distinguishing structural market shifts from headline-driven volatility. This is particularly relevant in the context of US–Iran negotiations, which have repeatedly reversed direction.

With key US data ahead—including NFP this week and CPI next week—markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments impacting growth, inflation, and FOMC expectations. These dynamics may also revive BOJ intervention risks and potential carry trade unwinds, making upcoming sessions critical to monitor as markets attempt to stabilize.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves