Crypto Technical Analysis: Green numbers return to the market

July has just begun, and the cryptocurrency market is once again showing short-term recovery signals. For the first time in several weeks, the main cryptocurrencies have closed broadly in positive territory, bringing back a buying bias that had lost strength in recent sessions.

In addition, Bitcoin, as the market’s reference coin, managed to hold above the 60,000-dollar area, reinforcing the idea of a relevant recovery in the crypto market. If this dynamic holds, buying pressure could remain important over the next few trading sessions.

Performance of the main cryptocurrencies

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

• During the week, a relevant buying bias has been observed, with all major cryptocurrencies posting positive variations. Cardano stands out, as it was one of the most affected cryptocurrencies last week and is now showing a recovery of more than 15%, positioning it as the asset with the strongest short-term momentum. However, Dogecoin continues to show a more cautious performance, with a positive variation of just 0.86%. This makes it cryptocurrency with the weakest recovery in the group and suggests that it remains more sensitive compared with the rest of the market.
   

• Looking at the average performance over the last 10 weeks, weakness remains relevant across the main cryptocurrencies. All of them still show important declines, which means that medium-term selling pressure has not fully disappeared, although some assets are starting to show signs of greater stability. At this point, Solana stands out, with a medium-term decline of only -6.73%, positioning it as one of the most stable cryptocurrencies compared with previous weeks. In contrast, Cardano remains one of the most affected assets, with a decline of -32.50%, showing that its accumulated weakness is still significant.
   

• Year-to-date, the market still faces an important challenge. None of the main cryptocurrencies has managed to move above its 2026 opening price, and the recent recovery still does not seem strong enough to drastically change the yearly dynamic. Cardano continues to be the weakest asset during this period, with a decline of -48.90%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has tried to maintain greater relative stability, with a drop of -29.48%, although it still has not managed to post a positive yearly performance.
   

• Bitcoin has started to show short-term strength again, managing to hold above the 60k level and recovering a little more than 2,000 dollars in price. This reflects a return of buying interest in recent sessions, which could benefit both BTC and the broader crypto market.
   

• Overall, the recovery has allowed the market to reach new relevant short-term levels. If this dynamic stabilizes, buying pressure could start to change the sharp-decline scenario that dominated previous weeks.

Colors from red to green – Red for negative correlations and green for positive correlations

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

From a correlation perspective, the strong positive relationship between the main cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin remains important, with coefficients above 0.9. This shows that a large part of the market continues to move similarly to BTC over the last 20 sessions.

However, Solana is starting to stand out as a different case, with a correlation coefficient close to 0. This indicates that, for now, it has shown movements that are quite different from the rest of the market, alongside a more relevant recovery. It is important to remember that correlation coefficients can change over time.

This behavior shows that the crypto market, in general, remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s dynamic and to the improvement in confidence that the reference coin has started to show. Even so, Solana remains a specific case of strength, as it has shown greater stability in recent weeks and has partially moved away from the broader market’s behavior.

If BTC manages to hold the current confidence, this could continue to benefit the broader crypto market. However, Solana’s behavior also suggests that part of market interest may be concentrating on specific cryptocurrencies with stronger relative performance.

 

Bitcoin stabilizes above 60k

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bitcoin, as the market’s reference coin, has managed to recover short-term confidence and, for now, remains above the 60k area after several attempts to break this level in recent sessions. However, the current recovery looks more like the beginning of a possible short-term buying bias than bullish pressure strong enough to put the long bearish trendline at risk, which has been in place for several months. For now, this remains the most important technical structure on the chart. If buying pressure fails to strengthen, the bearish trendline could remain relevant for price movements over the coming weeks.

Indicators:

• At the moment, both the RSI and the MACD histogram have started to move closer to their neutral lines of 50 and 0, respectively. This suggests a balance between market impulses and the average strength of short-term moving averages. If this behavior continues, it could keep highlighting a phase of indecision over the next few sessions.

Key levels:

• 70,600 USD – Important resistance: Recent high area that stands as the most relevant upside barrier and coincides with the base marked by the long bearish trendline. Moves toward this level could reactivate the buying bias and start to put the bearish structure at risk over the coming weeks.
   
• 65,500 USD – Nearby barrier: Recent neutrality level that previously corresponded to a low area on the chart and now aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. This point could act as a tentative barrier if short-term bullish corrections continue.
   
• 59,300 USD – Definitive support: Area that represents the October 2024 low and is close to important psychological levels. For now, it remains the most relevant downside barrier. Consistent moves below this point could reactivate the selling bias seen in previous weeks and extend the bearish trendline as the dominant structure.

 

Solana stands out in the crypto market

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Solana continues to stand out as one of the few cryptocurrencies showing a stronger recovery compared with the rest of the market. Its price has already moved above relevant barriers and has broken a long bearish trendline that had been in place for several months. If the current buying pressure stabilizes, this could open the door to the formation of a new bullish trendline over the coming weeks.

Indicators:

• Now, both the RSI and the MACD histogram remain above their neutral levels. This shows that the average strength of short-term moving averages and bullish impulses have gained relevance, reinforcing the presence of a buying bias. However, the RSI is getting increasingly close to the 70 overbought area, which may also point to a possible excess of buying strength. This could open the door to short-term bearish corrections.

Key levels:

• 96.12 – Important resistance: Relevant high from recent weeks, which coincides with the area marked by the 200-period moving average. Moves toward this point could confirm the dominance of the current buying bias and open the door to a possible bullish trendline over the coming weeks.
   
• 76.02 – Nearby barrier: Relevant neutrality level that coincides with the 50-period moving average area. This point could act as a tentative barrier if short-term bearish corrections begin to form.
   
• 61.98 – Main support: Level corresponding to the relevant lows of 2026 and considered the most important downside barrier. Moves toward this area could call the recent recovery into question and bring back a phase of indecision on the chart over the coming weeks.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25