Cryptocurrency Forecast: BTC/USD, ETH/USD Rallies Stall at Resistance

Cryptocurrency Technical Forecast: BTC/USD, ETH/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Bitcoin and Ethereum rallies stall into technical resistance at record highs
Broader crypto outlook remains constructive- rallies remains vulnerable near-term
BTC/USD Resistance 125,985 (key), 135,806- Support 114,079, 106,470 (key)
ETH/USD Resistance 4,779/867 (key), 5,200 – Support 4,006/146, 3,591 (key)

Cryptocurrencies are stalling this week with both Bitcoin & Ethereum trading just below key technical resistance at record highs. The momentum structure remains constructive, yet both pairs are showing early signs of fatigue, leaving the focus on a breakout or failure from key ranges in price. The coming sessions could define whether the next leg higher resumes or the market pauses for a deeper correction. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD and ETH/USD technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Bitcoin setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

Bitcoin has rallied more than 68% off the yearly / April lows with BTC/USD testing confluent resistance for a second week at 123,754-125,985 - a region defined by the 1.272% extension of the 2022 advance, the 1.618% extension of the September rally, and the August highs. Ongoing weekly momentum divergence highlights the risk for possible exhaustion / price inflection of this threshold in the days ahead.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows the advance faltering into resistance for a fifth consecutive session with BTC/USD threatening to slip back below the median-line today. Monthly open support rests at 114,079 and is backed by key support / near-term bullish invalidation at the 106,470-109,356- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the September lows, and the January swing high. Ultimately, a break / close below this formation would be needed to suggest a more significant high in place / a larger trend reversal is underway.

A topside breach above this key resistance pivot is needed to mark uptrend reversal with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the April advance at 135,806 and the 1.618% extension at 143,931.

Bottom line: While the broader Bitcoin outlook remains constructive, the rally may be vulnerable here while below the monthly high. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 106,470 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 125,985 needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Ethereum Price Chart – ETH/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; ETH/USD on TradingView

Ethereum has rallied more than 258% off the yearly lows, with ETH/USD stalling into uptrend resistance in August. Since then, price has consolidated just below this barrier, and focus is now on a breakout in the weeks ahead to guide the next directional move.

Weekly support rests at 4,006/147- a region defied by the 2024 swing high / high-close, the September low-week close, and the objective October open. Note that the median-line of the ascending pitchfork extending off the late 2023 lows converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this zone. Losses below this key pivot would threaten a deeper correction within the broader uptrend with subsequent support seen at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 3,591 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2024 high-week close (HWC) / 2025 yearly open at 3,276/333- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Resistance remains with the 2021 high / record HWC at 4,779/867- a topside breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 75% parallel (currently near ~5,200), 6000, and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance at 6,605- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: While the broader outlook remains constructive, Ethereum remains vulnerable near-term while below the monthly high. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of this range - ultimately, losses would need to be limited to 3,591 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 4,867 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.