DAX, GBP/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch

DAX falls as oil rises back up to $100 per barrel

The DAX, along with its European peers, is extending losses on Thursday as oil prices jump again, fuelling concerns about a potential supply shock and rising inflationary pressures amid the war in the Middle East.

Crude oil climbed back above $100 a barrel after fuel tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and as the conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces appeared far from being resolved.

Europe, which is heavily reliant on oil imports, could see inflation climb if crude prices remain elevated for an extended period, adding pressure to already lacklustre regional growth.

Prior to the Iran war, the ECB was expected to leave interest rates unchanged this year. However, money markets are now pricing in an ECB rate hike by July, with an 85% probability of another increase by December.

Economically sensitive banks are leading the sector lower, while ongoing geopolitical concerns are supporting defence stocks.

BMW is falling 2.3% after the carmaker forecast that pretax earnings will decline moderately this year and that deliveries will stagnate.

There is no major eurozone or German data due to be released today. The US economic calendar is also quiet, so developments surrounding the Middle East conflict will likely be the key market driver.

DAX forecast – technical analysis

After running into resistance at 25,400, the DAX rebounded lower, breaking below its 50 and 200 SMA and its multi-month rising trendline, falling to a low of 22,700. The taking out of these key supports, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further declines.

Immediate support is at 23,400. A break below here opens the door to 22,900, the November low, and 22,700, the 2026 low. A break below here creates a lower low.

Buyers would need to rise above 24,000 to create a more stable footing, and 24,200 to the 200 SMA.

GBP/USD falls ahead of BoE Bailey’s speech & on safe haven USD flows

GBP/USD is falling for a third straight day as gilt yields rise and the US dollar benefits from safe-haven flows. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak.

The US dollar is extending gains toward its 2026 highs amid volatile oil prices, stoking inflation worries that could prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess the need for interest rate cuts. The dollar is also supported by its safe-haven appeal and by the US's status as a net energy exporter.

Oil markets have remained volatile even after the International Energy Agency agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles. However, markets are not convinced that this will stabilise prices.

Meanwhile, the pound is under pressure as gilt yields rise to a 6.5-month high. Rising oil prices are stoking concerns over inflationary pressures. The Bank of England, which was previously expected to cut rates this month, may instead be forced to hike rates before the end of the year.

The aggressive repricing of BoE rate-cut expectations is providing some support to GBP.

Traders will now look to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech later today for further insight into the outlook for rates, along with the monthly UK GDP figures due tomorrow. For now, the focus will remain on geopolitical developments and concerns over the war-driven surge in energy prices and inflationary pressures.

GBP/USD forecast - technical analysis

GBP/USD ran into resistance at 1.3870, rebounded lower, broke below the near-term rising trendline, 50, and 200 SMA, and reached a low of 1.3250. The price recovered from this low but failed to rise above the 200 SMA, keeping the bearish bias in place.

Sellers will look to take out support at 1.3350 and 1.3250, the 2026 low, to create a lower low and extend the bearish move towards 1.32 and 1.30.

Buyers would need to rise above the 200 SMA at 1.3450 to create a higher high and exposes the 50 SMA at 1.3530.