Equities Weekly Outlook: US Q4 Banks Earnings, TSMC, Delta Air

U.S. banks kick off earnings season this week with Q4 results from top lenders, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. According to FactSet, Q4 2025 S&P 500 earnings growth is expected at 8.3%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of expansion.

2025 was a strong year for U.S. financials, and earnings season is likely to be another positive catalyst for the sector, supported by a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy.

U.S. GDP was upwardly revised, while consumer spending remained strong, inflation cooled, and concerns about a slowing labor market persisted. The strong growth is expected to support loan growth in Q4.

Investors will also be watching NIMs. The Fed cut rates three times in the last three meetings of the year. Rate cuts would usually exert downward pressure on NIMs; however, they also reduce liabilities by lowering interest paid on deposits.

In Q3, investment banking revenues continued their strong rebound, driven by rising dealmaking activity. IB fees will remain a key focus in Q4, given their influence on revenue growth in previous quarters.

Trading activity is also likely to perform well in Q4, driven by increased market volatility, including a sharp decline in November amid concerns about the AI bubble, followed by record highs in December.

JPMorgan reports on Tuesday, with Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday. This is followed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reporting on Thursday or before the opening bell.

JP Morgan (Tuesday)

JPMorgan’s share price is at a record high. Strength in its trading and investment banking segments drove strong Q3 results, which the company reported in October. While the share price initially fell 4%, it quickly pared those losses to less than 2% by the close.

In Q3, profit increased 16% to $5.07 EPS. Revenue rose 9% to $46.4 billion, with fixed income trading up 21% and equity trading up 33% to $33 billion. Investment banking also showed signs of growth, increasing 16%, and this area could see further growth in 2026, with IPO;s expected to see heightened activity.

Expectations are for Q4 profits to increase 3% to $4.94 per share, with revenue up 7% to $ 46.2 billion.

How to trade JPM Q4 earnings

The share price has trended higher since the April low, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, reaching a record high of 335 last week. The RSI supports further upside while it remains out of overbought territory.

Buyers will look to rise above 335 to fresh record levels, bringing 350 into focus.

Support can be seen at 320, the January low, and November high. Below here, the rising trendline support at 310 comes into play ahead of 300, the December low.

Delta Airlines (Tuesday)

Delta Air Lines' share price is surging as the stock market anticipates stronger growth prospects for the airline group, which is typically cyclical.

The share price broke out of consolidation around the end of November, taking the stock up to record highs, where it remains.

The 18% decline in oil prices across 2025 also supported the stock.

In Q3 earnings, reported on October 9, the share price saw a significant day move but still rallied 4.3% after the company posted a 14% rise in quarterly profits and a 6% rise in revenue.

Main cabin revenue dipped in the quarter. However, investors cheered an 8% increase in corporate revenue and a 9% rise in premium revenue, which includes first-class and economy seats.

The company is forecasting EPS of $1.60 to $1.90, with a midpoint of $1.75, above the $1.65 estimate.

How to trade DAL earnings

After falling to a low of 34.40 in April, Delta Air Lines has trended higher, reaching a peak of 73.10. The price trades above its 50 and 200 SMA. The bearish RSI divergence could be a reason to be cautious.

Buyers will look to push above 73.10 to fresh record highs, with 75 and 80 as the next levels to watch.

Support is at 68.90, the January low, with a break below here opening the door to 62.50, the October high. Below here, 55.50 comes into focus.

TSMC (Thursday)

Profits and revenue growth have exploded over the past six quarters at Taiwan Semiconductor. Earnings growth has ranged from 31% to 79%, whilst revenue growth has been 30% to 54%. December revenue figures, released on Friday, provided investors with clues about chipmakers' performance in Q4 and for 2025. The chip maker posted a 20.4% increase in revenue compared to a year earlier in December.

Earnings are expected to grow another 29% to $2.84 a share, and revenue should accelerate slightly from the third quarter, up 37% to $32.8 billion.

The market will be closely watching the company's outlook for the current quarter in 2026.

How to trade TSM earnings?

The share price trades above its multi-month rising trendline and the 50 and 200 SMAs. The price rose to a record high of 333 last week before easing lower, pulling the RSI out of overbought territory.

Buyers will look to extend gains above 333 towards 250 and new ATHs.

Support is seen at 310, and a break below 277 is needed to create a lower low.