EUR/USD, AUD/USD, S&P 500 Analysis: COT Report

View related analysis:

Market positioning from the COT report – 8 April 2025:

Large speculators reduced gross-short exposure to Australian dollar futures (AUD) futures by -10% (-10.2k contracts) and increased longs by 9% (2.2k contracts), reducing net-short exposure by -12.5k contracts
Net-short exposure to Canadian dollar futures (CAD) fell to a 6-month low
Large speculators derisked against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) by shedding gross-longs by 29% (-3.3k contracts) and gross-shorts by -16% (-9.1k contracts)
Gross-short exposure to Swiss France (CHF) futures plunged by -26% (-12.2k contracts), as traders questioned whether being short the ‘go to’ safe haven currency was a good idea
They also culled gross-short exposure to Japanese yen futures (JPY) by -26% (-10.3k contracts)
Traders bet again energy by increasing gross-short exposure to WTI crude oil by 12% (18.5k contracts) and trimming shorts by -3% (-9.4k contracts)
Asset managers went all in on shorting S&P 500 contracts by increasing gross-short exposure by 32% (66.9k contracts). Flipped to net-short Dow Jones (DJI) futures and reduced net-long exposure to Nasdaq (NQ) futures by -10.2k contracts

US dollar positioning (IMM data) – COT report:

The US dollar index finally closed below 100 last week, to mark its first weekly close below the milestone level since July 2023. And that also suggests that asset managers may have already flipped to net-short exposure to the dollar index, as they were only net-long by around 2l contracts by Tuesday’s close.

Still, futures traders remain effectively net-short the US dollar by -$5 billion according to the IMM (International Money Market).

How the US dollar index trades around 100 is key going forward, given the level has held as support since April 2022.

EUR/USD (Euro dollar futures) positioning – COT report:

Asset managers piled into bullish EUR/USD bets last week, increasing gross longs by 28.5k contracts (7.4%), sending their net-long exposure to a 6-month high. Large speculators also increased their net-long exposure by 8.2k contracts to mark their fourth week of net-long exposure.

Commodity FX (AUD, CAD, NZD) futures – COT report:

Australian dollar (AUD) futures

AUD/USD formed a solid recovery from the 59c handle last week, and erased all of the prior week’s gains. Large speculators and shed gross shorts by -10.2k contracts to mark the fastest pace of short covering since June, and asset managers closed -11.7k contracts (fastest pace of short covering since May). However, asset managers also increased longs by 8k contracts – and that was before AUD/USD began its strong rebound from Wednesday’s low.

Canadian dollar (CAD) futures

Net-short exposure has been flagging a potential bullish reversal for the Canadian dollar for several months. So it is good to finally see the Canadian dollar strengthen, while USD/CAD collapses. Net-short exposure has fallen to a 6-month low among large speculators, and shows the potential to fall further given the strong bullish move seen on the Canadian dollar in the second half of last week.

New Zealand dollar (NZD) futures

Asset managers and large speculators also reduced their net-short exposure to New Zealand dollar futures. However, they appear to be derisking away from the Kiwi dollar, given both longs and shorts were trimmed. Still, like the Australian and Canadian dollar, NZD/USD performed a strong recovery in the second half of the week which was presumably a combination of fresh longs and further short covering. Overall, it appears we have seen the cycle lows for commodity FX.

S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) futures positioning – COT report:

Bears did not shy away from shorting US indices at the beginning of last week, with asset managers increasing their gross-short exposure to S&P 500 futures by 33% (67k contracts). This marked the fastest rise of shorts since December 2022 and pulled their net-long exposure to the least bullish level since December 2023.

However, given the strong rebound in the second half of the week, I suspect many if not all of these shorts have capitulated.

It is also worth noting that asset managers have been betting against the Nasdaq for a much longer period of time.

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.