Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Plunge Pauses Above Key Support

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Euro plummets more than 3.1% from yearly high- stalling at key support for a third week
EUR/USD risk for inflection off this zone with a close below needed to fuel next leg of the correction.
Resistance 1.1747/75 (key), 1.1917-1.2020, 1.2217- Support 1.1586/93, 1.1497-1.1505 (key), 1.1394

The Euro has come under pressure, with EUR/USD plunging from the yearly highs to trade just above key support for a third consecutive week. The focus is now on a possible inflection off this zone, where a weekly close below would suggest the next leg of the decline is underway. Traders are also eyeing key inflation data due Friday, with both the Fed and ECB interest rate decisions on tap next week— events that could spark volatility and help shape near-term direction. Battle lines drawn on the Euro weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD was breaking below, “channel support this week and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable heading into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1775 IF price is heading for a deeper correction here..” Euro plummeted more than 3.1% from the yearly highs with price exhausting into technical support for the past two-weeks and the focus is on possible inflection into this zone with the medium-term risk still weighted t0 the downside while below the monthly open (1.1734).

Initial weekly support rests with the July low-week close (LWC) / 61.8% retracement of the July advance at 1.1586/93 and is backed by 1.1497-1.1505- a region defined by the March 2020 high, the 2022 high, and the 100% extension of the September decline. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a break / weekly close below needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway within the broader uptrend. Subsequent support objectives eyed at the Aril high close at 1.1394 with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 2024 high-week close (HWC) / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1228/54.

Weekly resistance is eyed at the 1.1747/75- a region defined by the 2025 HWC, the June high-close, and the 61.8% retracement of the September decline. A breach / weekly close above this pivot zone is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with key resistance steady at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance / 38.2% retracement of the broader 2008 decline at 1.1917-1.2020 (area of interest for possible exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 2021 HWC at 1.2218 in the event of a breakout.

Bottom line: Euro is trading just above support, and the focus is on inflection off this zone in the days ahead with a weekly close below needed to fuel the next leg of this pullback. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 1.1734 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1497 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Keep in mind we get the release of U.S. inflation data on Friday with the FOMC & ECB interest rate decisions on tap next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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