EUR/USD Bulls Gain Ground, NZD/USD Bullish Bets Surge: COT report

Speculative positioning across futures markets showed notable shifts in the week ending 20 May 2025. Net-long exposure to the New Zealand dollar surged at its fastest pace in seven years, while traders extended their bullish bias toward the euro. In contrast, metals markets saw a divergence, with silver approaching a sentiment extreme as gold speculators remained cautious. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures posted modest net-long increases, but positioning remains well below 2024 peaks.

View related analysis:

Weekly Market Positioning Overview – COT Report Highlights (17 June 2025)

•   US Dollar (USD): Asset managers trimmed their record-high level of net-short exposure to the US dollar by a mere -75 contracts, while large speculators increased their by 3l contracts
•   European dollar (EUR): Large speculators increased net-long exposure to the euro by 8.5k contracts to an 18-month high
•   British pound (GBP): Traders reduced net-long exposure to GBP/USD futures by -8.7k contracts (shorts rose 6.7%, longs trimmed by -4.3%).
•   Japanese yen (JPY): Net-long exposure fell -13.7k contracts, mostly driven by a 13% increase of gross-shorts (5.2k contracts)
•   Australian dollar (AUD): Gross-longs reduced to AUD/USD futures by -11.7% (-2.8k), though net-short exposure was effectively flat
•   Canadian dollar (CAD): Traders increased their gross-long exposure to CAD by 18.2% (7.4k contracts), and reduced shorts by -16.2% (-18.3k)
•   Swiss franc (CHF): Traders reduced their overall exposure by reducing longs by -15% (-12k contracts) and also lowering shorts by -8.5% (-2.6k contracts)
•   New Zealand dollar (NZD): Traders were on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure by decreasing net-short exposure by 20k contracts
•   Gold (GC): Large speculators increased net-long exposure by 6.4k contracts’
•   Silver (SI): Bets against silver were on the rise with gross-shorts increasing by 17.7% (3.3k contracts)
•   Crude Oil (WTI): Traders reduced short bets against crude oil by -16.2% (-22.5k contracts)

EUR/USD Positioning: Euro Futures – Weekly COT Report

Asset managers increased their net-long exposure to EUR/USD future to a 16-month high, large speculators increased theirs to a 15-month high. And with the euro considering a break of its three-year, nine-month high at the time of writing, it is hard to be bullish on the US dollar index right now – despite stretched net-short exposure.

While large speculators saw a slight increase of gross-shorts, they also increased longs to their highest level since December 2023. And with net-long exposure not at a sentiment extreme for either trader, the EUR/USD could be looking at further gains to the detriment of the US dollar index.

NZD/USD Positioning: New Zealand Dollar Futures – Weekly COT Report

Net-long exposure to New Zealand dollar futures surged at their fastest weekly pace seven years. The 202k increase was fuelled by a reduction of -14.7k short contracts, its fastest pace since December 2022, and a 5.3k contract rise of longs. Asset managers also followed the same pattern of closing NZD/USD shorts in exchange for longs.

This coincided with positive developments from the US-China trade talks, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had already dopped hints that the easing cycle was at or near an end. Perhaps NZD/USD will now be the outperformer over AUD/USD, given the potential for at least two more 25bp cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) this year.

Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper) Futures - COT report

While gold and silver prices have generally tracked each other higher in recent weeks, there is a clear divergence between the market positioning of the two. It is also plausible that silver positioning has reached a sentiment extreme, and gold’s gains could be capped with large speculators and managed funds less keen on chasing gold prices higher.

Gold Futures Positioning (GC): Weekly COT Report Analysis

•   Large speculators and managed funds increased their net-long exposure to gold futures by a combined 21.5k contracts
•   Net-long exposure is sitting around 10-week highs among both sets of traders
•   Whole net-long exposure to gold has been trending higher in recent weeks, it remains low relative to prices to warn of caution among the larger players

Silver Futures Positioning (SI): Weekly COT Report Analysis

•   Net-long exposure to silver futures rose to a 5-year high among large speculators and a 13-week high among managed funds
•   Both sets of traders increased longs and shorts to show a lack of clarity around these highs
•   A shooting star candle also formed last week to suggest neat-term exhaustion to Silver’s trend

Wall Street Indices Positioning (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100): Weekly COT Report

Net-long exposure has been retracing lower on Wall Street futures this year. Given we’re nearly six months down already, perhaps we’re nearing the point where net-long exposure beings to increase.

S&P 500 Futures Positioning (ES): Weekly COT Report Analysis

•   Asset managers increased net-long exposure to S&P 500 futures by 20.6k contracts
•   Gross-longs were trimmed by -3.5k contracts
•   Gross-shorts fell by -238k
•   Given S&P 500 futures are back above 6100, perhaps it will gun for its record high

Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning (NQ): Weekly COT Report Analysis

•   Net-long exposure to Nasdaq 100 futures rose to the 16-week high of 22.4k contracts
•   Gross longs and shorts were increased by 2.7k contracts
•   Gross-shorts increased by 910 contacts
•   Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 could be considering a break for its all-time high

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.