Gold, Bitcoin, DXY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

USD technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week / month.
Major event risk on tap with US retail sales, NFPs and CPI on tap
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In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD), and S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: Gold is trading more than 15% off the monthly low following last month’s 21% decline with XAU/USD approaching resistance early in the week at the 61.8% retracement near 5141. Looking for a reaction off this mark IF reached.

Monthly open support rests at 4894 and is backed by the 61.8% retracement of the February range at 4667. Key support / bullish invalidation remains with the 2025 high-day close (HDC) at 4500/33- losses below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger gold correction is underway.

A topside breach above the median-line would expose the 100% extension of the monthly advance at 5343 and key resistance at 5520-5615- a region defined by the 2.618% extension of the broader December 2024 and the 1.618% extension of the August rally. A close above this zone would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend toward 6K.

Bottom line: The gold recovery is now approaching initial resistance hurdles after last month’s assault. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4894 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 5141 required to fuel the next leg of he recovery. That said, the broader risk remains for a deeper correction on the heels of this most recent washout and strength beyond 5343 is ultimately needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and put the bulls firmly in control.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

Notes: Last week’s collapse recovered nearly 17.7% into the close of the week with Bitcoin closing just above a key pivot zone at 69,000/675- a region defined by the 2021 swing high and the 61.8% extension of the October decline. A near-term low may be in place here, but the broader risk remains for deeper setback in the weeks ahead.

Initial resistance is now eyed at the March 2024 high and the 2025 swing low at 73,679-74,434 and is backed by medium-term bearish invalidation at the monthly open and the 2025 low-day close (LDC) at 78,644-79,127.

Initial support remains at 69,000 with a break below the low-close at 62,795 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline. Subsequent support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 advance at 57,885 and the 100% extension at 52,204- both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: Daily momentum has recovered from oversold territory and the pivot above 69000 may suggest a larger rebound is underway near-term. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 79,127 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 62,795 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Note: Oil price as defended confluent support last week at the lower bounds of the January channel and keeps the upside bias intact while above 61.43-62.07- a region define by the September low, the April 2025 low week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the December rally. The focus is on breakout of the February opening-range for guidance here.

Key resistance remains unchanged at 66.08/40 and a breach / close above this pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the rally. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 50% retracement of the 2025 range at 67.86 and a Fibonacci confluence near 70.63/91- looking for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A break below this channel would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 61.8% retracement at 56.36 and the yearly open at 57.58.

Bottom line: The WTI recovery remains viable while within this formation with the monthly range taking shape just below resistance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 61.43 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 66.40 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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