Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Clings to Major Support—Breakdown Risk Rises

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

XAU/USD remains trapped near major support after weeks of range-bound trade.
A break below support would threaten a deeper correction and renewed downside momentum.
A rebound from current levels would keep focus on the broader monthly range.
Key inflation data next week with the Iran war negotiations central focus
Resistance ~4770s, 4894 (key), 5025– Support 4493-4533 (key), 4319, 4074-4151

Gold prices remain pinned near a major support zone after weeks of sideways trade, with XAU/USD continuing to hold a critical technical floor near the lows of the monthly range. The broader outlook remains extremely sensitive to this region, where a sustained break would threaten a deeper correction while a successful defense could stabilize the recent decline. With inflation concerns rising and Fed rate expectations shifting higher, the pressure on gold continues to build heading into next week’s key inflation release. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was trading just above pivotal support, “with the May opening range taking shape just above- look for the breakout to offer guidance here. From a trading standpoint, the outlook remains unchanged- losses would need to be limited to 4493 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 4894 still needed to fuel the next major leg of rally.” Nearly three-weeks later, and the gold remains rangebound just above pivotal support and the focus is on a reaction at this key hurdle heading into next week.

Key support remains with the 2025 high-close and the 2026 low-week close (LWC) at 4493-4533. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten another bout of losses towards the objective yearly open at 4319 and 4074-4151- a region defined by 61.8% extension of the March decline, the yearly low, the October high-week close (HWC), and the 52-week moving average. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly resistance remains with the median line / the monthly range high near 4770’s and is backed by the record high-week close (HWC) at 4894. A breach weekly close above this level is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger breakout is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement at 5025 and the record high close at 5279.

Bottom line: Gold is sitting at technical support at multi-week range lows, and the risk remains for price inflection off this zone. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a breakout of the monthly range for guidance with the bears vulnerable while above 4493.

Keep in mind it is a shortened holiday week with Personal Consumption Expenditures headlining the economic docket. This is the Fed’s preferred inflationary gauge and with the freshly minted Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh taking the helm, trader will be eagerly anticipating the inflation update and its potential impact on the monetary policy outlook.

With no resolution in sight to the situation brewing in Iran, the inflationary outlook has continued to deteriorate in recent months, and market participants are now pricing nearly a 70% probability the central bank will need to hike rate this year to address rising prices. For gold, which does not offer a yield, the shift in expectations has been a headwind and should higher energy prices persist, the situation may only worsen. Watch the war headlines here and keep your eyed on the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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