Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Surges 17% into Make-or-Break Resistance

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Gold has rebounded sharply off the 200-day moving average after a sharp decline of more than 24% in March
XAU/USD remains within the monthly downtrend with price now approaching pivotal resistance- inflection risk building
A sustained break above would suggest a more significant low is in place- bulls vulnerable while below
Resistance 4855-4910 (key), 5025, 5133- Support 4669, 4533/40 (key), 4319

Gold has rebounded sharply after a steep corrective decline, shifting near-term momentum as price approaches a critical technical inflection zone. The recovery highlights a potential stabilization in the recent selloff, but the broader outlook remains uncertain as price tests a key resistance area. The reaction here is likely to offer important guidance, with a break higher suggesting a more durable recovery while failure would keep the risk of a deeper pullback in focus. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD had broken key support levels and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 4815 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 4533 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Price broke below near-term support the following day with the decline extending more than 24% off the monthly highs to register and intraday low at 4098 two-days later. XAU/USD rebounding sharply just ahead of the 200-day moving average with the subsequent rally now extending nearly 17% off the March low.

The advance is now approaching channel resistance with daily momentum attempting to top 50 for the first time since mid-March. A critical lateral resistance zone is eyed just higher the focus is on a reaction there IF reached to offer guidance here.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork formation extending off the March low. The advance is now testing the 75% parallel with the March trendline just higher. Key near-term resistance is eyed at 4855/4910- a region defined by the 100% extension of the recent advance and the 61.8% retracement of the March decline. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and the potential for resumption of the broader uptrend in gold. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the record high at 5025 and the 78.6% retracement of the March decline at 5133.

Monthly open support now rests at 4669 with near-term bullish invalidation now set to the 2025 high-day close (HDC) and the 61.8% retracement of the October advance at 5333/40. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold over the next few days and losses beyond this pivot zone would threaten resumption of the March downtrend. Subsequent support objective rest with the 2026 yearly open at 4319 and the 100% extension of the January decline and the October reversal close at 4224/51. Both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: The gold recovery is now approaching downtrend resistance with a major resistance pivot eyed just higher. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4533 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 4910 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind this is s a shortened holiday week with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Later tonight, President Trump will be addressing the nation regarding the ongoing war in Iran. The speech has the potential to impact broader market sentiment and could fuel added volatility in the Asia session. Stay nimble here into the monthly open and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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