Gold, Silver Outlook: One Last Stretch?

Key Events:

• Market sentiment remains neutral to bullish, yet gold and silver rallies continue to advance in a disciplined manner toward the 100 and 5,000 thresholds.
• US indices are holding below critical resistance levels as sentiment cautiously improves ahead of the FOMC outlook and mega-cap earnings next week.
• The US dollar is also holding within a neutral-to-bullish zone, keeping currency markets in consolidation mode ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Precious metal bulls continue to drive silver and gold trends higher toward the 100 and 5,000 thresholds. The key question remains whether markets have one last stretch left before a potential corrective phase emerges.

In an environment where market sentiment is constantly on edge due to the rapid flow of headlines and the equally fast reaction of trading algorithms and bots, price action frequently oscillates between sharp surges, drawdowns, and dip-buying phases. These dynamics can define historically significant ranges within very short trading windows. The Trump administration’s aggressive push to advance its agenda has not only supported the US economy but has also fueled an exponential rise in gold and silver, driven by growing uncertainty alongside economic expansion.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its FOMC decision and rate outlook on Wednesday, an event that would typically dominate market attention. However, with Trump leading the headlines and raising questions around the Fed’s independence, the primary driver of market volatility has shifted, leaving uncertainty as the core force behind the gold and silver surge.

From a technical perspective, the 100 and 5,000 levels stand out as highly attractive psychological targets and potential profit-taking zones. However, given the crowded nature of expectations around these levels, caution is warranted. A concentration of orders near these thresholds could amplify volatility and liquidity risks.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Gold Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

On a monthly basis, gold price action is approaching the 5,000 psychological barrier and the upper boundary of a duplicated channel that has been developing for nearly nine years. A brief pullback from the 4,965 high may serve as an early signal of exhaustion, potentially confirming a short-term top before a deeper drawdown allows momentum to reset from historically overbought conditions.

The 4,960 zone represents the 3.618 Fibonacci extension of the broader trend measured from the August 2018 low, the September 2020 high, and the October 2022 low.

A sustained hold above this level could push prices toward the upper channel boundary near 5,100. From there, the market may either experience a sharp corrective phase or extend higher toward the 5,400 zone.

On the downside, a break below 4,550 and 4,400 could open the door toward the 4,150 and 4,050 regions, offering potential dip-buying opportunities. Should losses accelerate further, attention would shift to the lower boundary of the duplicated channel, which connects major highs from 2016, 2020, and 2025, aligning with the former resistance zone between 3,700 and 3,500.

With gold trading near critical levels, silver appears to be progressing more gradually toward the 100 mark, having briefly approached 99.39 before staging a modest pullback.

Silver Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a weekly perspective, silver has been advancing within a parallel channel that originated between August 2022 and April 2025, before extending into a fifth parabolic wave characterized by a sequence of duplicated channels.

Price action is now approaching the upper boundary of the fourth channel eyeing the 110 level, derived using Fibonacci measurements between the October 2023 low at 20.68, the October 2024 high at 34.87, and the April 2025 low at 28.35.

The 110 level aligns with the 5.618 Fibonacci extension, following a pullback from the 4.618 level near 95.

Momentum indicators reinforce caution, with the RSI displaying a triple-wave structure at historically overbought levels, raising the risk of negative divergence. A break below the 95 level could trigger a more meaningful momentum reset, initially targeting the 80 zone and, in deeper correction scenarios, the 68 area.

Silver’s broader trend remains closely aligned with the technology sector, suggesting that any significant pullbacks are likely to attract dip-buying interest as long as the primary trend remains intact.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves