Open an Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an Account
✖

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Back Above 159 as Peace Talks Falter

By :   Matt Weller CFA, CMT , Head of Market Research
March 25, 2026 4:06 PM

Japanese Yen, Iran Key Points

  • After a promising start to the day, markets are once again fearful that any sort of peace deal between the US and Iran remains far away.
  • Major US indices are back to flat after trading up more than +1% pre-market, with oil prices bouncing off their overnight lows, and the US dollar rallying on safe haven demand.
  • USD/JPY resistance looms in the upper-159.00s, where traders grow increasingly concerned with the risk of intervention on the part of Japanese authorities.

Today’s trade started on an optimistic note, but it’s been mostly downhill from there. Per news reports, the US delivered a 15-point peace plan to Iran via intermediaries, raising hopes that both sides could come to the proverbial negotiating table under the auspices of a longer ceasefire.

However, just before the US open, Iran rejected the proposal, stating that it was “not logical” to enter such a process with a counterparty that violates agreements, delivering its own 5-point proposal that appears similarly untenable from a US perspective.

Shortly before midday, news that Iran’s nuclear Bushehr nuclear power plant had been struck, “marking an alarming escalation in the US-Israeli terrorism against Iran’s civilian infrastructure” again raised fears that the war could devolve into strikes on non-military targets in the coming days. While the strike reportedly took place yesterday, the big takeaway for traders is that any sort of peace deal between the US and Iran is still far away.

As we go to press, major US indices are back to flat after trading up more than +1% pre-market, with oil prices bouncing off their overnight lows, and the US dollar rallying on safe haven demand against all of its major rivals.

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview, StoneX

Technically speaking, USD/JPY remains in focus. The pair is once again trading above 159.00 amid broad-based US dollar buying and concerns about the effects of elevated oil prices on the energy-import-dependent Japanese economy.

As the chart above shows, resistance looms in the upper-159.00s, where traders grow increasingly concerned with the risk of intervention on the part of Japanese authorities, but the move higher so far hasn’t been the type of one-way volatility that historically prompts such an action.

If the situation in Iran continues to deteriorate, USD/JPY could rally through this resistance zone, bringing the mid-2024 high near 161.80 into view next. Meanwhile, substantial progress toward peace could reverse today’s rally, with initial support coming in at the 21-day EMA near 158.00.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2026