Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Bulls Tackle Resistance

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

USD/JPY rebounds off confluent trend support- poised to mark fourth weekly advance
USD/JPY risk for price inflection as bulls struggle at resistance- US retail sales / consumer sentiment on tap
Resistance 149.39, 151.63/95 (key), 155.03- Support 145.37, 143.67/90 (key), 139.58-140.49

The Japanese Yen is poised to mark a fourth consecutive weekly decline with USD/JPY rallying nearly 6.3% off the yearly low. The advance is attempting to breach technical resistance this week and the focus is on the Friday close with respect to this key pivot zone. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY had, “responded to support near the 2024 swing lows and the focus is on this near-term recovery within the broader downtrend.” USD/JPY has rallied more than 6.2% off those lows with the bulls attempting to mark a fourth consecutive weekly advance.

The rally is testing a break of confluent resistance this week at 38.2% retracement of the yearly range near 147.14. Note that the median-line converges on this zone this week further highlights the technical significance of this threshold. Watch the weekly close with respect to this slope.

Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 50% retracement at 149.39 and 151.13/95- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 61.8% retracement, and the 2022/2023 highs. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Weekly-open support at 145.37 backed by the 2025 / 2024 low-week closes (LWC) at 143.67/90. Losses below this threshold would threaten the 2021 uptrend with subsequent objectives seen at 139.58-140.49 and the 100% extension of the 2024 decline / July 2023 swing low at 136.51-137.24.

Bottom line: USD/JPY is attempting to mount a key technical confluence, and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to 147.14. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to the weekly-open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 151.95 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month / mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

Keep in mind we get the release of U.S. retail sales data Thursday with consumer sentiment on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.