Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Coils Below 160—Breakout Setup Builds

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

USD/JPY remains capped below a major resistance zone after a strong prior rally.
Price is consolidating near highs, signaling building pressure within the range.
A breakout above resistance would signal continuation of the broader uptrend while failure risks a pullback within the current consolidation.
Major event risk next week with BoJ & Fed rate decisions and US / Japan CPI
Resistance 160.21/74 (key), 161.95, 163.33- Support 157.70, 156.67, 154.79-155.29(key)

USD/JPY continues to consolidate just below a key resistance zone after a strong advance, with price action reflecting a period of compression near recent highs. The pause in momentum suggests a potential buildup for a larger move, with the broader uptrend still intact for now. The focus shifts to a breakout of this range, which could provide clearer direction for the next phase of price action. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY was, “attempting to secure a breakout of the yearly opening-range highs, and the focus is on this push towards 160. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 157.70 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a break of the monthly highs needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/JPY broke higher later that week with price extending more than 5.3% off the March lows to briefly register an intraday high at 160.46 before reversing into the close of the month.

Since then, USD/JPY has been stuck in a range just below confluent resistance at 160.21/74- a region defined by the April 2024 swing high and he 2024 high-week reversal close (HWC). A consolidation is taking shape just below the April opening-range intact heading into next week. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here.

Weekly support rests with the 2025 high-week close (HWC) at 157.70. Yearly open support rests just lower at 154.67 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2026 low-week close (LWC) and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 154.79-155.29. Note that basic channel support converges on this level into the monthly cross and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 2024 swing high at 161.95 and the 1.618% extension of the 2025 advance near 163.33- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/JPY is consolidating just below confluent resistance, and the focus is on a breakout of the April range for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 157.70 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 160.74 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Aside from the barrage of ongoing war headlines, we get the release of rate decisions from the BoJ and the Fed next week with key inflation data on tap Thursday. Stay nimble into this pending breakout and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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