Japanese Yen Price Action Setups into ISM and ADP: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY

Yen crosses enter a pivotal 48-hour window as ISM services, ADP payrolls and Australian GDP hit the wires. USD/JPY remains surprisingly resilient despite renewed Fed-cut bets, while EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY continue to trend higher on the daily charts. Below are the key technical levels, breakout signals and near-term risks to watch.

View related analysis:

Yen Cross Technical Setups Ahead of ISM and ADP

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

While speculation persists that the Bank of Japan may inch closer to a rate hike, it hasn’t been enough to spark a meaningful rebound in the yen. With a December Fed cut now back in play, USD/JPY should arguably be falling faster — yet price action remains relatively resilient. That keeps the latest pullback looking more corrective than structural, with a rebound towards 157 still a reasonable assumption within the broader bullish trend.

JPY Volatility Stays Muted Ahead of Heavy US Data

Implied volatility is unusually subdued given the upcoming ISM services, ADP payrolls and PCE inflation data. Any upside surprise here could catch US dollar bears off guard and support USD/JPY before its typical December softness — which tends to kick in during the second half of the month.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: LSEG

Also note that the 1- and 3-month risk reversals remain aligned with the prevailing daily trend, signalling that options markets aren’t pricing a major bearish reversal yet. The 1-week tenor has slipped alongside spot, hinting at scope for further near-term downside, but nothing that challenges the broader structure.

Bulls Favoured Above 155 as Volume Confirms the Rebound

USD/JPY reached my 155 downside target with a strong lower wick, aligning with a heavily oversold RSI. Monday’s close back above the 20-day EMA and Tuesday’s small bullish candle show demand rebuilding above the spike low. Bias remains to buy dips while price holds above the 155 zone.

On the 1-hour chart, rising volume after the spike low supports the recovery. RSI (14) is confirming the move, and once Tokyo volatility clears, bulls can hunt dips within yesterday’s range targeting the high-volume nodes at 156.34, 156.70 and possibly the 157 handle. Further upside assumes incoming US data doesn’t tilt the narrative back toward Fed doves.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView USD/JPY

EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY: Bullish Trends Intact Despite Minor Pullbacks

These charts are straightforward to interpret given the dominant bullish trends on the daily timeframe.

EUR/JPY: Triangle Patterns Hint at an Upside Break

EUR/JPY is carving out a potential symmetrical triangle near its highs and continues to hold above the 10-day EMA. The moving averages remain in a bullish sequence, and Wednesday’s bullish engulfing candle signals renewed demand. Bias favours an upside breakout and trend continuation. Even if we see a dip first, bulls can look for support around the 180 HVN or the monthly pivot.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView

CHF/JPY: Pullback Holds Above Supportive EMAs

CHF/JPY also retains a strong bullish trend, although the pullback from its record high has been slightly deeper than in EUR/JPY. Price is still holding above the 20-day EMA, and a supportive candle has formed, hinting that another test of the highs may be building. If price softens, bulls can watch for a swing low near the October high or the 192 handle. A clean break beneath 192 points to a deeper correction.

Key Economic Events for Traders (AEDT / GMT+11)

Australian GDP looks more likely than not to show some strength today, given elevated inflation, firm household spending and solid employment data. The real question is whether it fuels talk of a hike in H2 next year or revives bets on cuts.

ISM services PMI will be key for Fed watchers looking for clues on next year’s easing path. A 25bp December cut is already priced in, so the focus is entirely on 2026 expectations. Watch the prices paid and new orders components. Also note that S&P Global will release their own US PMI figure.

ADP payrolls has undershot expectations recently, and another negative print could quickly undermine my near-term bullish bias for USD/JPY.

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

09:00 AUD AIG Construction Index; AIG Manufacturing Index; Manufacturing & Services PMI; RBA Gov Bullock Speaks; Judo Bank Services PMI (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, ASX 200)

11:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY)

11:30 AUD GDP; GDP Capital Expenditure; GDP Chain Price Index; GDP Final Consumption (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, ASX 200)
11:30 JPY Manufacturing & Services PMI; au Jibun Bank Services PMI (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)

12:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (USD/CNY, AUD/CNH, CN50)

18:30 CHF CPI (USD/CHF, EUR/CHF)

19:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR/USD, DAX, EUR/GBP)

19:55 EUR HCOB Germany Composite PMI; Germany Services PMI (EUR/USD, DAX)

20:00 EUR HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI; Eurozone Services PMI (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, Euro Stoxx 50)

20:30 GBP S&P Global Composite PMI; Services PMI (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100)
21:00 EUR PPI (EUR/USD, DAX)

21:30 EUR ECB's Lane Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP)

23:00 USD MBA Mortgage Rate; MBA Mortgage Applications; Purchase Index; Mortgage Market Index; Refinance Index
(S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)

Thursday, December 4, 2025

00:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
00:15 CAD Reserve Assets Total (USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, TSX)

00:30 USD Export Price Index; Import Price Index (DXY, USD/JPY, Gold)
00:30 CAD Labor Productivity (USD/CAD, CAD/JPY)
00:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)

01:15 USD Capacity Utilization; Industrial Production; Manufacturing Production (USD/JPY, Dow Jones, Gold)

01:30 CAD Services PMI (USD/CAD, CAD/JPY)

01:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI; S&P Global Services PMI (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)

02:00 USD Construction Spending; ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity; ISM Employment; ISM New Orders; ISM PMI; ISM Prices; Total Vehicle Sales
(S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)

02:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories; Refinery Runs; Crude Oil Imports; Cushing Inventories; Distillates; Gasoline Production; Heating Oil Stockpiles; Refinery Utilisation; Gasoline Inventories
(WTI, Brent, USD/CAD)

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

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