Oil, GBP/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch

Oil Rises as Hormuz Risks Offset Saudi Price Cuts and Higher OPEC+ Supply but Bearish Picture Remains

Oil prices are rising on Tuesday, recovering from a four-month low near $67 a barrel as renewed concerns over shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz temporarily outweigh expectations of stronger global crude supplies.

Crude rebounded after reports that a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck off the coast of Oman, highlighting that security risks remain elevated despite the reopening of the strategic shipping route.

While the Strait has resumed operations, shipping volumes remain below pre-conflict levels and investors remain alert to any disruption that could threaten global energy supplies. As a result, a modest geopolitical risk premium has returned to the market.

However, the broader outlook for oil remains bearish as attention shifts back to rising supply.

Saudi Aramco cut the August official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers, signalling intensifying competition for market share at a time when regional supply is recovering.

The move follows OPEC+'s decision to increase August production targets, reinforcing expectations that additional barrels will return to the market during the second half of the year. Combined with improving export flows from the Gulf, the supply outlook continues to point towards a better-supplied oil market, limiting the scope for any sustained recovery in prices.

Oil Forecast – Technical Analysis

Oil broke below its symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day SMA, falling to a four-month low near $67 before finding support. The RSI has moved into oversold territory, suggesting the recent sell-off may pause before the next directional move.

While prices have rebounded towards $70, the broader trend remains bearish.

Sellers will look for a break below $67 to expose the February low around $62.50, followed by the psychological $60 level.

Any recovery would first need to reclaim the 200-day SMA near $74. A move above there would bring $80 into focus.

GBP/USD rises for an eigth day, testing a key resistance

GBP/USD has climbed to a three-week high near 1.34 as the U.S. dollar weakens following softer U.S. economic data and a moderation in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.

The dollar has remained under pressure since last week's weaker-than-expected payrolls report, which showed slower job creation across April, May and June than markets had anticipated.

Yesterday's ISM Services PMI reinforced that narrative. While activity remained firmly in expansion territory at 54.0, broadly in line with expectations, the Prices Paid component fell sharply from 71.3 to 67.7, suggesting inflationary pressures continue to ease. At the same time, the employment index improved to 51.2, pointing to a labour market that is cooling gradually rather than deteriorating sharply.

Taken together, the data support the view that inflation may continue to moderate without a significant slowdown in economic activity, reducing the urgency for further Federal Reserve tightening.

Markets now see a 41% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in September, up from 32% a week ago, weighing on the U.S. dollar.

However, sterling's upside may also prove limited as investors have similarly scaled back expectations for further Bank of England tightening. Markets are now pricing around a 70% probability of a single 25-basis-point rate hike this year, compared with expectations for two increases just a few weeks ago.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently reiterated that inflation is expected to return to the Bank's 2% target, although the process may take longer than previously anticipated.

Looking ahead, the UK economic calendar is relatively quiet. The focus will be on the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report. Any indication that policymakers are becoming more concerned about financial conditions or economic risks could reinforce expectations for a cautious policy approach and weigh on sterling.

GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has rebounded from the 1.3200 support zone, rising to test resistance around 1.3400, where the 50-day and 200-day SMAs converge.

The RSI has moved above 50, indicating improving bullish momentum.

A sustained break above the moving averages would expose 1.3500, where falling trendline resistance and the May swing high converge. A move above that level would create a higher high and open the door towards 1.3650.

Failure to break above the moving averages could see the pair drift back towards support at 1.3330. A break below there would expose the 1.3200 support zone once again.