Oil Price Forecast: Key Levels in Focus as Middle East Energy Disruptions Intensify

Key levels on crude oil charts are in focus as energy disruptions intensify in the Middle east, along with the extended closure of the strait of Hormuz. Brent retested the $100 mark, reinforcing bullish expectations for the commodity.

Latest Oil Disruptions in the Middle East:

• Shipping and tanker attacks near Iraq
• Drone strikes on Oman’s ports
• The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz

These events follow earlier strikes on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and Tehran, pressuring several OPEC producers and forcing partial operational halts. Shipping routes have diverged, while insurance premiums have surged, adding further strain to global energy supply chains.

As highlighted in yesterday’s video update, crude oil’s bullish risks remained intact despite the sharp pullback from $119 to $76 per barrel.

Oil Prices and Inflation Risks

Upside risks for crude oil remain elevated as no clear geopolitical resolution appears in sight. Shipping disruptions are not only affecting crude flows but also the transport of fresh produce, fertilizers, and essential goods into the region, leading to modest price increases. Should the conflict persist, broader inflationary risks could resurface.

For oil traders, key technical levels remain critical in managing risk exposure.

Key Upside Levels to Watch

• WTI Crude: $91 – $95
• Brent Crude: $100 – $105

A daily close above these zones would redirect price action toward the 2022 highs near $130 per barrel.

Although crude experienced a sharp pullback from the $120 region, the strong rebound above the June 2025 highs, previous resistance during last year’s Middle East conflict, increases the probability of a more sustained bullish phase.

The energy-driven spike in crude prices is also supporting the US dollar, which remains firm near the 99.50 level. This strength continues to pressure global equities and precious metals as inflation expectations return to market focus amid escalating geopolitical risks.

Crude Oil Scenarios

WTI Oil Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

WTI price action is currently fluctuating between:

• The 2022 resistance near $120 (Russia–Ukraine invasion)
• The June 2025 resistance near $75 (Iran–Israel–US conflict), now acting as support

These technical zones remain decisive in defining crude oil’s next long-term directional move.

Bullish scenario:

Bullish bias remains evident following the successful defense of the $75 level, which has transitioned from resistance into support. This suggests a broader geopolitical escalation relative to 2025 and opens the door toward $91 and $95.

• A decisive close above $95 would extend upside targets toward: $97 - $110 - $115
• Beyond that, further bullish expansion could target: $130 - $150

These projections are derived using Fibonacci extension tool applied between the 2020 lows, the 2022 highs, and the 2026 lows.  

Key Fibonacci alignments:

• 0.618 extension → $115
• 0.786 extension → $130
• 1.000 (100%) extension → $150

Bearish Scenario

A daily close back below the $75 level, the June 2025 breakout zone, would reassert bearish pressure. This could redirect WTI toward the upper boundary of the 2.5-year descending channel near $66.

Such a move may either trigger another bullish rebound attempt or reintroduce extended consolidation between the $70 and $50 range.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves