Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises after a mixed NFP report, US Supreme Court ruling up next

US futures

Dow futures 0.03%, S&P futures 0.23% & Nasdaq futures 0.3%

In Europe

FTSE 0.7%6 & DAX 0.45%

Stocks rise after weaker NFP job creation of 50k vs 66k forecast
Unemployment fell sharply to 4.4%
US Supreme Court decision on tariffs is due shortly
Oil rises on Iranian unrest

Stocks rise after 50k jobs added, vs 66k forecast

US stocks are set to open higher following mixed non-farm payrolls data and ahead of a US Supreme Court decision expected shortly.

The NFP report showed 50k jobs were added in December, below the 66k forecast. The previous two months saw a notable 76k downward revision. The unemployment rate fell by more than expected to 4.4%, down from 4.6%. Expectations had been for a fall to 4.5%. Wage growth rose 0.3%, up from 0.1% MoM.

The data paint a mixed picture for the Federal Reserve: weaker headline job creation, but a sharp drop in unemployment wipes out the chances of a January rate cut. Bond yields rose post-release, reflecting dampened near-term prospects for a Fed rate cut. However, the market is still pricing in two rate cuts this year compared to the Fed’s projected one.

Attention is now turning to the US Supreme Court decision regarding Trump's trade tariffs. The Supreme Court will decide whether Trump’s tariffs are illegal. We expect the Supreme Court to rule in favour of Trump. However, if this is not the case, the US may be required to repay the $00 billion in tariffs already collected. This could create market volatility.

Corporate news

Intel is rising 2.6% after President Trump said he had a great meeting with the chipmaker's CEO. The US government took a 10% stake in Intel last August and is now the chip company's largest shareholder.

Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing rose 0.6% after the world's largest contract chipmaker reported a 20% increase in Q4 revenue from a year earlier, as demand for the company's products jumped amid surging interest in AI.

General Motors is falling 2% of the auto giant said in a regulatory filing that it will record $7.1 billion in special charges for Q4 related to its pullback in EV and restructuring efforts in China.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq 100 trades within a symmetrical triangle, and momentum is fading. After several failed attempts, buyers will look to break out of the falling trendline resistance and head towards 25,835, the 2026 high and December high. Above here: 26,000 comes into focus, then to 26,250 and a fresh record high. On the downside, 25,350, the 50 SMA, and falling trendline support could offer support ahead of 25,200. Below here 24,700, the December low comes into focus.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD slips

The U.S. dollar trades at a monthly high as investors digest the NFP report and look ahead to the US Supreme Court decision. The NFP report removes the urgency for a Fed rate cut anytime soon.

EUR/USD is falling for a fourth consecutive session and is near a monthly low. The EUR is under pressure as concerns over Greenland remain on traders' radar. Next week, Marco Rubio will meet with the Danish leader. This comes after Trump doubled down on commitments to take Greenland.

GBP/USD is falling for a fourth straight session amid USD strength and ahead of UK unemployment data next week. Unemployment rose to 5.1%, the highest level since the pandemic as firms come under increased financial pressure. Higher unemployment sees inflation cooling faster, and the BoE cuts rates further.

Oil rises further on Iran unrest

Oil Prices are extending gains for a second straight day, rising over 4% in the past 36 hours. The late-week rally has offset early-week losses and is putting oil on track to gain 1.5% this week.

Oil prices are rising as investors weigh a potential disruption to Iran's output and amid uncertainty about supply from Venezuela.

Protests appear to be gathering momentum, raising concerns about oil supply. The civil unrest in Iran, a major oil producer, comes as Ukraine is increasingly targeting Russian oil infrastructure and exportsin the Russia-Ukraine war, adding to supply concerns.

Meanwhile, the White House is set to order Big Oil to enter Venezuela to boost exports and production. Trump has demanded that Venezuela give the US full access to its oil sector just days after it captured the country's president.

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