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S&P 500: SPX falls after Trump’s visa fee

By :   Fiona Cincotta , Senior Market Analyst
September 22, 2025 1:51 PM

US futures                                         

Dow futures -0.40%, S&P futures -0.24%  & Nasdaq futures -0.18%

In Europe

FTSE 0.06% & DAX 0.62%

  • US stocks fall away from record highs
  • Trump announced a $100k fee for new H-1B visas
  • Gold hits a record high
  • Oil falls as oversupply worries offset geopolitical tensions.

Stocks ease from record highs after Trump’s visa crackdown

U.S. stocks are heading for a modestly lower open on Monday amid caution over whether geopolitical concerns could offset the Federal Reserve's monetary easing policy. Gold surged to a record high of 3726 per oz.

U.S. stocks are easing away from record highs reached last week after President Trump said that U.S. companies would need to pay $100,000 for H-1B worker visas, which could be a blow for the US tech sector, which is heavily reliant on skilled workers from India and China. A sharp increase in visa fees will raise costs for companies, and the burden may be passed on to the consumer. The Nasdaq is falling after three straight weeks of gains.

This mainly affects India and its tech services industry, creating hurdles for a speedy trade deal between the two countries..

Investors will also hear from a plethora of Fed officials this week, including Stephen Miran later today. Miran will be watched closely as he could provide some context to his vote for a 50 basis point rate cut. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is due to speak tomorrow.

The main economic data point this week will be Friday's core PCE reading, the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation. Expectations are for core PCE to hold steady at 2.9% YoY in August, above the 2.6% low reached in April.

The reading comes as the market price is in 44 basis points of easing across the coming two policy meetings.

Corporate news

Amazon is falling pre-market as it is the firm with the highest number of H-1B visas in 2025, with around 10,000 approvals for its headquarters in Virginia.

Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Apple are all falling as they also have high numbers of visa approvals.

Pfizer announced it will buy Metsera, the weight loss drug developer, for $4.9 billion in cash. The deal is expected to go through in Q4.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis

The S&P500 has paused around record highs at 6670. The price has been guided northwards by the 20 SMA and rising trendline. The RSI is in overbought territory, so there could be a period of consolidation, or a move lower could help bring the RSI lower. Support can be seen at 6550, the 20 SMA, and the weekly low. Below here is the 50 SMA at 6400. A break below 6150 is needed to negate the long-term uptrend.

FX markets – US falls, GBP/USD rises

The USD is falling after snapping a three-day winning run as investors await comments from Federal Reserve officials to get a better understanding of the monetary policy outlook for the central bank after it resumed its easing cycle last week.

The EUR/USD is rising against the weaker U.S. dollar as attention turns to ECB speakers and eurozone consumer confidence. The ECB has signaled that it is in no rush to cut interest rates further, which will keep the euro supported, especially as the Fed looks to reduce rates further.

The GBP/USD is rising towards 135 after losses last week. However, the upside to GBP could be limited given concerns surrounding the autumn budget after Britain's borrowing shot past official figures. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak later today, and slower-than-expected rate cuts may only offer limited support to the pound.

Oil falls as over supply worries offset geopolitical tensions.

Oil prices are falling modestly after the flat finish last week. Investors continue to weigh up Russia and Middle Eastern concerns, which are being offset by oversupply worries.

Russian military jets violated NATO Estonia's airspace on Friday, and this was followed by the deployment of Polish and allied aircraft on Saturday after Russia launched air strikes targeting western Ukraine near the border with Poland.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Western nations recognised a Palestinian state, prompting a furious response from Israel, adding to concerns in the oil-producing region.

Despite geopolitical jitters supporting the oil price, global oil demand is expected to taper off in Q3 and Q4, coinciding with OPEC's increase in output. Concerns over production are offsetting the rising geopolitical risk premium on oil.

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