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S&P500 Forecast: SPX flat after jobs data & ahead of Alphabet earnings

By :   Fiona Cincotta , Senior Market Analyst
October 29, 2024 3:13 PM

US futures

Dow future -0.09% at 42326

S&P futures 0.1% at 5831

Nasdaq futures 0.48% at 20443

In Europe

FTSE -0.70% at 8235

Dax 0.14% at 19471

  • Stocks are steady, with data & earnings in focus
  • JOLTS job openings fell by more than expected
  • Alphabet reports after the close
  • Oil rises after falling 6% yesterday

Alphabet earnings & falling job openings

U.S. stocks are pointing to a mixed open amid a softer JOLTs job openings report and as more earnings continue to roll in.

JOLTS job openings data revealed that the number of job openings stood at 7.44 million, falling short of the expected 7.98 million.

The previous figure was also downwardly revised from 8.1 million to 7.86 million. This downward trend in job vacancies points to a potential slowdown in the labour market, which could have further implications for the health of the US economy.

The data comes ahead of more jobs figures this week, with ADP payrolls and US nonfarm payrolls in focus on Friday. The data could raise concerns about the health of the labour market and the likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy.

U.S. Treasury yields are also rising, with the 10-year yield reaching a three-month high. This boosted recent strong US data, raising questions about Fed rate cuts and after a weak government auction pointed to soft demand ahead of next week's U.S. presidential election.

The market is increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in next week's elections; Trump is expected to implement inflationary policies that support the US dollar but keep stocks under pressure.

There are plenty of data points that will be released this week, including the jobs data, GDP figures, and core PCE. Strong data could see expectations for a November rate cut fall. Goldilocks data will be important to keep rate cut expectations stable.

 

Corporate news

Alphabet is due to report after the clothes and is expected to show its lowest revenue growth in four quarters. Expectations are for EPS of $1.85 on revenue of $86.4 billion. The share price trades up 22% YTD, underperforming some of its Magnificent Seven peers.

Ford fell 9% after the automaker lowered its full-year guidance even as earnings and revenue beat forecasts. EPS was $0.49c, and revenue came in at $43.07 billion. Ford blamed supply disruptions and warranty costs amid a global price war.

PayPal is fooling after the digital payment giant posted Q3 earnings that beat forecasts, but revenue fell short of expectations.

S&P500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P500 trades above its multi-month rising trendline but has eased back from record highs of 5882. Buyers will look to rise above 5882 to extend gains towards 5900. Sellers will need to break below 5800, last week’s low, to negate the near-term uptrend. Below 5660, the October low comes into focus.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is rising on expectations that Trump will win the election. next, we can implement inflationary policies, which means the Federal Reserve could adopt A more gradual pace of two rate cuts. As well as election focus there is plenty of economic data over the coming days.

EUR/USD is falling amid a stronger  USD and on signs that consumer confidence is starting to improve in Germany. GfK German consumer confidence improved to -18.3, up from -21  and ahead of forecasts to -20.5. The judge German government still forecasts a 0.2% contraction this year.

GBP/USD is unchanged below 1.30 in cautious trade ahead of tomorrow's UK Budget. Today, BRC data showed that shop prices fell -0.8% YoY in September, down from -0.6%, pointing to ongoing deflationary pressures. This helps pave the way for more BoE rate cuts.

Oil rises after yesterday's 6% drop.

Oil prices are rising modestly after dropping 6% in the previous session. Oil is finding support in US plans to buy oil for its strategic petroleum reserve, although wider concerns about future demand growth could limit the upside.

Noel is showing some signs of recovery after the fading risk premium sent oil prices 6% lower yesterday. Signs that tensions in the Middle East could be de-escalating have helped ease concerns over any supply disruption in the region.

Instead, the focus is on news that the US says it was taking to buy up to 3,000,000 barrels of oil for SPR for delivery through May next year.

Meanwhile, the outlook for demand, particularly in China, is in question despite the recent Chinese stimulus announcement.

 

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