Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF 8-Day Rally Fuels V-shaped Recovery into Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

USD/CHF USD/CHF has extended an eight-day rally from the October lows, marking a sharp V-shaped recovery
Advance is testing resistance at the November high-day close — a reaction here will be key for direction.
Resistance 8101, 8125 (key), 8172/86- Support 8007/17, 7964 (key), 7939

The Swiss Franc remains under pressure, with USD/CHF extending an eight-day rally from the October lows to test resistance near the November high. The advance has fueled a sharp V-shaped recovery off the monthly lows and focus now turns to the reaction from this zone for guidance. The near-term advance could face headwinds here, with a breakout or rejection off resistance likely to define direction into the close of the month. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts heading into December.

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Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: USD/CHF rebounded sharply off the October lows with a V-shaped recovery attempting to mark an eighth consecutive daily advance. The rally has extended more than 2.8% off the monthly lows with price testing resistance at the November high-day close for a third consecutive session. The focus is on this key level in the days ahead with a breach / close above needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the October / November lows. The weekly opening-range is taking shape just above the median-line and we are looking for a breakout to offer guidance here over the next few days.

Initial support rests with the September and October swing highs at 8072/76 and is backed by 8007/17- a region defined by the August low-day close (LDC) and the 38.2% retracement of the recent advance off the lows. Broader bullish invalidation rests with the lower parallel which converges on the 61.8% retracement at 7964. Ultimately, a close below the November LDC at 7939 would be needed to put the bears in control here.

Initial resistance is eyed at the monthly high-day close (HDC) at 8101 and is backed by the August high-close (HC) at 8125. Strength beyond this pivot zone would be needed to mark resumption of the broader September uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the August high and May low at 8172/86- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is testing resistance for a third consecutive day with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below- look for the breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8001 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8125 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of this advance.

The economic docket is rather light into the close of the month with traders eyeing next week’s ADP employment report for an update on the labor market ahead of the December 10 interest rate decision. Stay nimble into the shortened holiday week and watch the close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

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