Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Faces Make-or-Break Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

USD/CHF rallies 2.36% off the yearly lows- stalls into multi-month downtrend resistance
USD/CHF weekly opening-range intact just below- breakout imminent
Limited event risk ahead as key jobs data on hold amid U.S. government shutdown
Resistance 7988, 8040/53 (key), 8098 - Support 7943, 7900/11, 7859/72(key)

The Swiss Franc is back in focus with USD/CHF rallying 2.36% off the yearly lows before stalling into multi-month downtrend resistance. The weekly opening-range remains intact just beneath this pivot, leaving the focus on a potential breakout in the days ahead. With U.S. jobs data delayed due to the government shutdown, near-term price action will likely dictate the next leg of this trend. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF was trading within a consolidation pattern just above the 80-handle with a break above the August trendline needed to fuel the next leg of the July advance. Price broke sharply lower two-days later with USD/CHF plunging more than 3% off the September highs. A rebound off the median-line on Fed day has rallied nearly 2.4% off the yearly lows with the advance exhausting at the upper parallel into the close of the month. The weekly opening-range is preserved heading into Thursday, and the focus is on a breakout of this near-term range for guidance in the days ahead.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF trading within the continues of a near-term ascending channel of the yearly lows with the weekly range intact just above channel support / the 38.2% retracement of the September rally at 7943. A break below this threshold would threaten resumption of the multi-month decline with subsequent support seen at the 61.8% retracement / July low-day close (LDC) at 7900/11 and 7859/72- a region defined by the 2025 low-close and the July low. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a close below needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline towards the 78.6% retracement of the broader 2011 rally at 7779.

Resistance is eyed at the objective weekly opening-range high (ORH) at 7988. The upper parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week and a break above this slope would expose a larger recovery towards key resistance at 8040/53- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the August decline, the August high-day close (HDC) and the 100% extension of the September advance. A breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 8098 and 8153/85 in the event of a breakout.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is trading just below downtrend resistance with the weekly opening-range intact- look for the breakout in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 7900 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8053 ultimately needed to suggest a larger turn is underway here.

Keep in mind that we will not be getting the release of the September Non-Farm Payroll figures or weekly jobless claims amid the ongoing government shutdown and traders will be closely monitoring the flow of headlines out of Washington D.C. to offer a catalyst in the days ahead. Stay nimble into the monthly opening-range and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

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