USD/JPY outlook: Yen remains under pressure as oil and US yields press higher

The USD/JPY has resumed its steady climb after Japan intervened at the end of April, with further operations widely suspected in early May. Since then, price action has turned more constructive, particularly after the pair reclaimed the key 158.00 level — an important technical threshold. The Japanese yen continues to struggle despite periods of softer dollar trading, reinforcing concerns that markets are becoming increasingly comfortable testing Japanese authorities’ tolerance for further weakness. For now, the balance of risks still points towards further upside in USD/JPY outlook rather than a lasting reversal lower. Intervention may trigger sharp but short-lived pullbacks, yet recent experience suggests those moves are unlikely to hold for long.

 

 

Intervention and its diminishing impact on USD/JPY

 

What is becoming increasingly evident is that markets are placing less weight on the effectiveness of intervention itself. The relatively subdued volatility suggests traders see official action as more of a temporary brake than a lasting reversal mechanism. That leaves the yen vulnerable in an environment where US yields remain elevated and global risk appetite remains uncertain.

 

The latest bout of yen weakness comes after Japan’s Ministry of Finance finally acted on repeated warnings about speculative and one-sided currency moves, intervening through the Bank of Japan during the Golden Week holiday period. Once USD/JPY pushed through 160.00, Tokyo appeared to conclude that enough was enough, triggering its first yen-buying operation since July 2024.

 

The intervention initially sparked a sharp rally in the yen across the board, but the underlying trend has since reasserted itself. Markets are once again questioning not only whether Tokyo will intervene again, but also how effective further action is likely to be.

 

Why is weakening yen a bad thing?

 

The core problem for Japan is that a weak yen significantly raises the cost of imported energy, food and raw materials. Given the country’s heavy dependence on energy imports, the recent rise in oil prices linked to tensions involving Iran has only intensified the pressure. While a weaker yen would ordinarily support Japanese exports, that benefit is currently being overshadowed by imported inflation and higher energy costs.

 

If oil prices remain elevated and US Treasury yields continue to rise, the effectiveness of intervention is likely to diminish further. Under those conditions, USD/JPY could still move decisively beyond 160.00.

 

Joint US-Japan efforts will be more effectively, but unlikely

 

The market has already observed diminishing returns from successive rounds of intervention, and Japanese authorities are well aware that foreign exchange reserves are not unlimited.

 

One possible avenue would be coordinated action with the United States, although Washington has so far shown little appetite for direct involvement. That said, if broad-based dollar strength were to accelerate sharply, the US Treasury could eventually work alongside Japanese authorities to stabilise the yen. Such a move would likely carry greater credibility than unilateral intervention alone, but for now there is little evidence to suggest that scenario is imminent.

 

Against this backdrop, the broader outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish despite repeated intervention attempts. A sustained reversal lower would probably require a meaningful decline in oil prices, which in turn depends on tangible progress between the US and Iran and a broader easing in geopolitical tensions.

 

Technical USD/JPY outlook: Intervention risks rise again as 160 comes back into focus

 

The USD/JPY outlook remains firmly pointed towards the exchange rate returning to the 160.00 area, which investors increasingly view as the line in the sand for Tokyo policymakers. If authorities refrain from stepping in around those levels again, attention is likely to shift quickly towards the 161.00 162.00 region — the zone where the Bank of Japan last intervened in July 2024.

 

 

Since breaking above the key 157.90/158.00 area (now an important support to watch), the USD/JPY has also moved back above its 21-day exponential moving average and is now testing the 159.10 region, which previously acted as support before the sharp intervention-driven sell-off on 30 April. Break this and 160.00 could be the next stop.

 

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R