Open an Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an Account
✖

USD/JPY, USD/CHF: Cracks Widen After Trend Breaks

By :   David Scutt , Market Analyst
May 21, 2025 4:25 AM
  • USD/JPY and USD/CHF break uptrend support from April lows
  • Momentum indicators favour further downside as MACD and RSI shift bearish
  • Sell-on-rallies bias reinforced by 50DMA downtrend in USD/CHF

The U.S. dollar is on the nose again in Asia, with USD/JPY and USD/CHF breaking uptrends established from the April lows. With geopolitical tensions flaring in the Middle East and risk assets struggling to extend recent gains, the environment looks ripe for further downside.

USD/JPY: Bearish Trend Resuming?

Source: TradingView

Downside risks for USD/JPY flagged last weekend following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating on Friday have materialised, resulting in the pair breaking the uptrend it had been trading in from the lows set on April 22. The unwind has since extended in Asian trade on Wednesday, with the pair breaking beneath horizontal support at 144.00. 

Should the break stick, shorts could be established below 144.00 with a stop above for protection. 142.40 looms as an initial target, coinciding with where the pair bounced from earlier this month. Below, 142 and 141.65 screen as other potential targets. 

Momentum indicators are shifting bearish, with RSI (14) trending lower while MACD is about to cross the signal line below zero, bolstering the signal. That favours selling rallies and downside breaks—something to keep in mind if we see pops towards 144 or the former uptrend. 

 

USD/CHF: April Lows Loom

Source: TradingView

The picture for USD/CHF is similar with the price breaking the uptrend it was trading in from the lows set in April. Having done away with minor support at .8272 on Wednesday, bears will now be eyeing a retest of support at .8200. A break there would open the door for a run towards the April swing low of .8040.

RSI (14) is shifting lower but not yet oversold, while MACD is on the cusp of crossing the signal line below zero. The overall momentum picture is therefore skewing bearish, favouring downside over upside. With the 50DMA trending lower, the Swissie remains an obvious sell-on-rallies play.

-- Written by David Scutt

Follow David on Twitter @scutty

 

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2026